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Uganda

Analysis - Doubts over Uganda peace talks despite progress

By Daniel Wallis

NAIROBI, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Despite new hope of a peace deal in Uganda, questions remain not only over whether it could work in practice but also whether negotiators truly speak for rebel leader Joseph Kony -- Africa's most wanted man.

Talks had limped along at a hotel in Juba, south Sudan, since mid-2006 before the government and Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels suddenly signed a raft of accords last week to help end one of the continent's longest wars.

With only the demobilisation of the rebels still left on the agenda, overjoyed mediators forecast a final deal within days.

But the agreement all depends on Kony, who has never attended the talks and stays hidden in the dense forests of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, unseen by outsiders for months and wanted by the International Criminal Court.

Because the negotiators are mostly Ugandans from the diaspora with no experience of fighting in the two-decade bush war, it is unclear to what extent they really represent him.

"I find the fanfare, or celebrations, in Juba greatly misplaced," Ugandan analyst Levi Ochieng told Reuters.

"The main issues are, what happens to Kony? Will any deal be binding on him? Where is he now? If you let him get away, you're letting him continue the conflict."

Although the rebellion has little direct impact on one of Africa's fastest growing economies, ending it permanently would be a major coup for President Yoweri Museveni and a relief in the coffee-exporting country of over 30 million.

It would also remove a destabilising element in a remote corner of the continent where conflicts respect no borders.

So far, both sides have agreed that crimes from the 22-year conflict can be dealt with by Ugandan courts, and the government has promised more public posts to people from the rebels' northern homeland. On Friday they inked a "permanent ceasefire".

ACCUSATIONS

But saying it had always doubted Kony's intentions, Uganda's military on Monday accused LRA fighters, perhaps including the rebel leader himself, of quitting camps on the Sudan-Congo frontier and rampaging into the Central African Republic.

LRA representatives in Juba said that was "nonsense".

Under the ceasefire terms, rebel fighters were to stay in an assembly area on Congo's border, guarded by the south Sudanese.

The rebels, notorious for slaughtering civilians, mutilating survivors and kidnapping children, have resisted all moves to surround them in the past, roaming vast unguarded reaches of Uganda, south Sudan, Congo and now the Central African Republic.

If a final deal is reached, then one of the next big steps would be for Kony to present himself for demobilisation -- and probable prosecution in Uganda.

But that could prove difficult for the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which has a warrant out for Kony and would be reluctant to drop it given that it was set up to prosecute exactly the kind of atrocities he is accused of.

The rebels say they will not sign a final deal until the court's arrest warrants are scrapped and the government says it will support that position if an agreement is reached.

EXAMPLE

But the suggestion infuriates activists who say the court would be setting a terrible example.

"It is not acceptable for the government and the LRA to make a deal that circumvents international law," said Christopher Keith Hall, a senior legal adviser to Amnesty International.

Uganda's government itself called on the ICC to charge Kony, which it did in 2005. Analysts say Kampala's only hope of persuading the court to step back would be to convince them Ugandan courts can do the job.

The ICC does not want to be seen as the last barrier to peace in a conflict that has killed tens of thousands, uprooted 2 million more and ravaged parts of three countries.

Commentators say the most important question now is whether Kony can overcome his fear of arrest.

Little is known about the self-proclaimed prophet leader who once said he wanted to rule Uganda according to the Biblical Ten Commandments. He has earned a reputation for violence, elusiveness and most of all unpredictability.

Defectors said he executed long-time deputy Vincent Otti in October after accusing him of being a government spy. He then sacked the head of his negotiating team in Juba and withdrew other key members.

On Tuesday, the government team proposed March 6 as the date to complete the talks. David Nyekorach-Matsanga, a UK-based exile who is the new chief LRA representative at the talks, said his side was in no rush and needed more time to consult Kony.

Ochieng, the analyst, said he still thought there could be a deal soon because the government and international community were keen for it, but warned against rushing.

"The talks have brought some calm to the region, but do we really want calm or a complete resolution that deals with the armed groups?"

(Editing by Brsyon Hull and Matthew Tostevin)