Overview
The Afghan elections in 2009 have become infamous for low turnout, fraud and insecurity. Delay in announcing the results and rumours of private negotiations have increased existing scepticism of the electoral process among national and international commentators. What has been overlooked, however, is the way in which-at least at the local level-these elections have been used to change the balance of power in a relatively peaceful manner. In many areas of Afghanistan, the polls emphasised local divisions and groupings, and highlighted the importance of political and voting blocs (which can include ethnic groups, qawms, or even family units) in determining political outcomes. Also, while perhaps not "legitimate" by international standards, these elections reflected the highly localised cultural and social context in which they took place: a context that is often patronage-based and in which power is gained through constant struggle and dialogue between political groups and leaders.
This study presents the August 2009 electoral process as it played out in three different areas of Kabul Province: Dasht-i Barchi, Qarabagh and Istalif. In each of these locations, the presidential and provincial council elections were key events in shifting the balance of local power. These areas also demonstrate the different ways in which voting blocs functioned and, while not representative of the country as a whole, provide valuable insights into the meaning and usefulness of elections at the local level.
Four key findings from this research are discussed:
1. Bloc voting in Afghanistan persists primarily because material and political rewards can be gained by emphasising to candidates the value of a group's support; voting individually minimises the potential political capital that can be gained during elections
2. The combination of systematic fraud and widespread accusations of corruption can affect the power of winning and losing blocs; if the balance of power is changed in a certain community, accusations of corruption, which are plausible given its widespread actual occurrence, can be an important way of undermining the newfound legitimacy of the victorious group
3. Ambiguity about which candidate a bloc will support and even ambiguity about the composition of the bloc itself is strategic, because it allows greater space for negotiation. In maintaining a degree of mystery over who they voted for, political blocs (and those individuals that claim to represent them) can gain rewards from more than one elected official
4. The threat of violence, or even of a general rejection of the current system, also generates political capital for groups-particularly in a system based on ambiguity. In the context of Afghanistan, in which the state does not hold a monopoly on violence, the threat of an uprising can be portrayed by a dissatisfied opposition as very real. Indeed, if opposition groups feel that their needs and interests have not been met, they can threaten noncooperation with the electoral system and civil disruption
Essentially, it is evident that blocs are and will continue to be important in shaping the way in which elections in Afghanistan play out.
These characteristics do not always fit well with Western models of democratic elections. However, they demonstrate the way in which elections have been incorporated into local politics and used as a way to promote the interests of different groups. This has important implications for the way in which the process of democratisation is likely to develop in Afghanistan. It is very clear from this study that:
- Local elections matter and need to be prioritised by both national and international actors
- Elections in 2009 were not a complete failure: people did vote and power balances did change at the local level; but
- There is an urgent need to reassess (especially international) expectations of what an "electoral success" might look like. In a context in which an ongoing insurgency meant that much of the country was not represented at the polls, and with a flawed voter registration process that has been a poor substitute for a valid census, it was misguided to expect elections this year to be a test of "democracy" in Afghanistan
- Preparations for 2010 parliamentary elections must begin now if the polls are to be seen by the voting public-and the international community-as worthwhile and credible