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WHY DARFUR REMAINS UNRESOLVED: NEW REPORT

GENEVA - A focus on peacekeeping at the expense of peacemaking, uncoordinated diplomacy, non-transparent mediation, and almost no consultation with Darfurian civil society are among the reasons that peace in Darfur remains elusive, according to a new report released today by the Small Arms Survey (http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org ).

Three and a half years since the Darfur Peace Agreement was rejected by most opposition groups and Darfurians, the prospects for peace remain as distant as ever. Yet with political tensions rising ahead of national elections scheduled for April 2010 and a likely vote for independence for Southern Sudan the following year, Darfur risks becoming, once again, a sideshow as the international community focuses elsewhere, the report finds.

'Rhetoric and Reality: The Failure to Resolve the Darfur Conflict,' by long-time Darfur analyst Julie Flint, dissects the reasons for the ongoing impasse and the crucial missteps that have led to it. Based on a series of interviews with mediators, government officials, humanitarian workers, and militia and rebel leaders over the last six months, the Working Paper attributes the failure to the interplay of a flawed process and an unfavourable context. These include a lack of will among the Sudanese parties, a breakdown of trust among all actors (including international ones), and a growing belief that a signed agreement means nothing more than temporary repositioning.

Key findings include the following:

-Neither the Sudanese government nor the armed movements have relinquished the military option and committed fully to peace. While international management of the peace process has been flawed, the absence of will among the Sudanese themselves is the key reason for the failure of peacemaking efforts.

-Western powers, and especially the P3 (United Kingdom, United States, and France), have not backed the peace process with strong, coordinated political démarches.

-External involvement in peacemaking has itself been a driver of conflict. A multiplicity of mediators and conflicting agendas has allowed the government and armed movements to appear to cooperate without in fact doing so.

-Material benefits, including international travel and hospitality lavished on individual rebel 'leaders' of questionable legitimacy, have made the status quo more profitable than peace and the responsibilities of exercising power.

-The subordination of peacemaking to peacekeeping, driven in part by advocacy campaigns to 'save' Darfur through military intervention and/or robust peacekeeping, has hardened rebel intransigence and strengthened the government's belief that the West has a half-hidden agenda of regime change.

-As in Abuja, the quality of the mediation has been part of the problem. The focus on peacekeeping has meant that mediators have been subject to insufficient scrutiny.

-The mediation has been neither inclusive nor transparent, and until recently has paid insufficient attention to the communities without whose support peace cannot be sustained-among them, the victims of the war and the impoverished nomads who form the core of the 'Janjaweed'.

-Although the failure of the DPA has been widely blamed on 'deadline diplomacy', neither international, nor regional, nor internal circumstances were conducive to a settlement. This remains the case today. The lessons of Abuja, although well documented, have not been put into practice-most obviously,the dangers of seeking a quick fix.

-Many Darfurians who were once content to let the armed movements speak for them no longer are. The belated involvement of civil society in the process led by Bassolé has introduced a valuable new dynamic that must be defined and developed.

-Without serious attention to the internal political crisis in Chad, Chadian support for Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) as President Idriss Déby's first line of defence against Chadian rebels will perpetuate Darfur's crisis indefinitely.

Authored by Julie Flint, 'Rhetoric and Reality' is the 19th Working Paper from the Small Arms Survey's Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project. The HSBA generates and disseminates timely, empirical research on small arms, armed violence, and insecurity in Sudan. All Working Papers are available at http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org.

For information about the report, or the Sudan HSBA Project, contact Claire Mc Evoy, HSBA Project Manager, at +254 738 220 008 or claire.mcevoy@smallarmssurvey.org.