Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Georgia

Georgia: Obama's Russia visit eases Georgians' fears of renewed conflict with Moscow

Giorgi Lomsadze

US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's early July summit may not have resolved the Georgia-Russia conflict, but, for many Georgians, it did succeed in allaying fears of a fresh military confrontation with Moscow. Nevertheless, worries persist about whether or not Obama's words of reconciliation will have a permanent effect on the Kremlin.

Recent explosions near the border with breakaway Abkhazia, doomsday warnings from analysts, and Russia's recent war games in the North Caucasus struck many in Tbilisi as a menacing reminder of events preceding last year's war with Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On July 6, Obama in Moscow stated "that Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected." The statement reassured Georgian officials and some analysts that the chances for renewed war are slim. Prime Minister Nika Gilauri hailed the comment as "proof that the new administration of the United States fully supports Georgia and this support will continue in the future."

A representative of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based conflict resolution advisory group, asserted that the meeting helped ease tension in the region. "Despite the fact that the situation remains pretty volatile on the border between Georgia and Russia, where military trainings . . . just ended, the meeting between President[s] Obama and Medvedev gave a positive sign, reducing the rhetoric of still another armed conflict between Russia and Georgia," commented ICG's Caucasus analyst Medea Turashvili. [Editor's note: The ICG receives funding from the New York-based Open Society Institute (OSI). EurasiaNet operates under OSI's auspices].

Tbilisi-based analyst Andro Barnov agrees. It's unlikely that Russia will want to follow up on the relatively congenial get-together in Moscow with an outburst of aggression toward Georgia, opined Barnov, who heads the Institute for Strategy and Development in the Georgian capital. "This would jeopardize the talks on a whole roster of globally important issues, such as reduction of nuclear weapons, Iran, Afghanistan, the financial crisis and essentially Russia alone would be at fault," Barnov said.

"With Russia and the United States facing many common challenges today, Moscow will not want to isolate itself," he added.

One prominent Georgian analyst, however, contends that Cold World-era grievances and views still exert considerable influence over policy planning in the Kremlin. Thus, it's unrealistic to hope that Obama's message on democratization will resonate in Moscow anytime soon. "The current state of the Russian political elites leaves little chance of [Obama's] views to take hold in Russia in the near future," Alexander Rondeli, head of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, was quoted as saying by the Interpress news agency.

Yuliya Latynina, a prominent pro-Georgia Russian journalist, claimed in a July 7 column for The Moscow Times that the talks in Moscow had more to do with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin trying to gauge the likely American reaction if the Kremlin moves militarily against Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, than with a pairing down of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. "Russia and the United States will never use these weapons against each other anyway," Latynina wrote.

If sizing up Obama's resolve was Putin's main objective, some ordinary Georgians believe Obama did not make the cut. The US president's statement on Georgian territorial integrity was too "mild" to convince Putin or Medvedev that Washington would react strongly to any future Russian aggression, commented retired Tbilisi schoolteacher Nikoloz Antadze. After showing active interest in Georgia under former president George W. Bush, Washington now can only "give a sad look at Russia, and then blow the trumpets about the success of America's foreign policy," he complained.

Analyst Barnov, though, believes that if Georgia plays its hand right, it could use the momentum in a US-Russian rapprochement to its advantage. "Obama brought to Medvedev his vision of building a better, safer and more democratic world and offered the Russians [a chance] to cooperate in this process," he said.

By "dropping the tough rhetoric" toward Abkhazia and South Ossetia and "improving human rights and civil liberties at home," Barnov argued, Georgia could become a point in Obama's case about the need for democracy, and "reassume the democratic leadership in the region."

Editor's Note: Giorgi Lomsadze is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi.

Disclaimer

EurasiaNet
© Eurasianet - EurasiaNet.org is an independent news organization that produces features and analysis about political, economic, environmental and social developments in Eurasia. Based in New York, EurasiaNet.org is hosted by Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship concerning Eurasia. EurasiaNet.org presents a variety of perspectives on contemporary developments, utilizing a network of correspondents based both in the West and in the region.