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DPRK

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Attachments

Mission Highlights

In DPRK, including the estimates for the 2010 main season harvest and forecast for the 2011 early season crops, a total of 5.33 million tonnes of staple food production from the cooperative farms, individual plots on sloping land and household gardens for 2010/11 is expected. This is about 3 percent higher than in 2009/10. When paddy is converted to milled rice, the above total production comes to 4.48 million tonnes.

A substantial increase in production was expected due to some improvements in the availability of fertilizer, pesticides, operational tractors, diesel and electricity. This expectation, however, was frustrated by some adverse weather events.

The winter of 2009/10 was unusually severe and prolonged which resulted in a low survival rate of winter wheat and delays in planting of spring crops and transplanting of main season paddy. Also, unusually intense rainstorms hit most of the country in late August and early September, causing localised flooding, crop loss and structural damage to irrigation canals and dams.

Despite the relatively good harvest, based on the Mission's estimate of total utilization needs of 5.35 million tonnes of cereal equivalent (rice in milled terms), there is an import requirement of 867 000 tonnes for the 2010/11 marketing year (November/October).

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 325 000 tonnes of commercial imports are planned for the upcoming marketing year. This seems to be in line with the commercial imports during the previous year. Thus, the Mission estimates an uncovered food deficit of 542 000 tonnes for the 2010/11 marketing year.

In 2009/10 a large number of low income non-farming households faced a significant food consumption gap as the cereals received from the public distribution system (PDS) provided only about half the daily caloric requirement on average. The deficit was unlikely to have been fully covered by other foods due to low purchasing power of these households.

Despite the overall large deficit in the food supply, food supplementation for children and women plus the child survival programmes in place have contributed to reduced rates of malnutrion.

Given that the overall food production situation in 2010/11 is not expected to improve significantly, the Mission recommends the provision of international food assistance to about 5 million most vulnerable people (including groups with special needs such as children, pregnant and lactating women and the elderly with no support and PDS dependent populations in high malnutrition and mountainous regions), amounting to 305 000 tonnes of cereals.

The planned commercial imports and recommended food assistance do not fill the entire uncovered food deficit leaving a gap of 237 000 tonnes of cereals. The Mission highlights the importance of meeting this gap to ensure adequate food is available. Should the Government not have the capacity to meet the gap through additional imports, these efforts can be supported by the international agencies and bilateral donors.

Furthermore, efforts should be made to provide soybeans and other pulses as part of the food assistance to increase the nutritive content of the diet.

In order to improve food security in the short to medium term, the Mission also makes recommendations for national and international support for - (i) potato storage and grain drying facilities to reduce losses and improve food safety, (ii) improvement in production of protein rich commodities such as pulses and fish (from aquaculture), and (iii) general assistance to private household garden production.