Summary
Desert Locust activities increased in western Mauritania in October. Survey and control teams from the National Locust Control Centre (CNLA) controlled second generation hoppers and adults on some 4,214 ha during this month (close to 4,280 ha have been treated since the current control operations began on September 11). Survey and control operations are in progress in Mauritania and neighboring countries are on the look out. CNLA's better coordinated proactive interventions coupled with limited initial populations compared to the 2003-04 outbreaks and the dwindling October rains will likely reduce the threat of larger-scale outbreaks and invasions during the forecast period. A few solitary adults were detected in southern Morocco and adjacent areas and low numbers of adults were observed in central Mali, northern Niger and Chad. The DL situation remained fairly calm in the Red Sea region and the Horn of Africa. Only some scattered solitary adults were reported in the summer breeding areas in Sudan, and coastal areas in Eritrea and Yemen and scattered adult populations were controlled on 37 ha in northeastern Ethiopia during this period. Other countries in the western, central and eastern outbreak regions remained calm (CNLA/Mauritania, CNLAA/Morocco, DLCO-EA, DPV/Niger, FAO-DLIS, PPD/Ethiopia, DPPQS/India).
Forecast:
The current outbreak in Mauritania is smaller than that of 2003- 04. Countries in the western outbreak and invasion areas are better prepared and can launch preventive interventions more rapidly than before. As the vegetation dries up and ecological conditions become less favorable, adult locusts will migrate further north where egg lying may take place should favorable conditions exist. Unless more rains fall in the coming weeks, it is likely that locust numbers will decline and breeding will end sooner. Other outbreak and invasion areas are expected to remain relatively calm during the forecast period. However, it is advisable that countries in outbreak areas maintain vigilance and continue monitoring the situation to avoid any unexpected invasions (AELGA, CNLA/Mauritania, CNLAA/Morocco, DLCO-EA, DPPQS/India, DLCU/Libya, FAO-DLIS, and PPD/Ethiopia).
