Food insecurity has improved in parts of Southern Sudan, particularly in Northern Bahr El Gazal, Unity, Upper Nile, Central Equatoria, northern parts of Warrap, and in the second season growing areas of Eastern Equatoria. This is because of short–cycle sorghum and groundnuts harvests in October and improved performance of the second season in some select areas.
Preliminary findings from this year's Crop Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) indicate that this year's harvest is below average and less than the 2008 harvest in all 10 states except for Central and Western Equatoria. Current food security improvements could therefore be temporary and last only until January, especially in the Eastern Flood Plains (Jonglei and Upper Nile states), Western Flood Plains (Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states), and parts of the Nile–Sobat Zone (Unity State).
Reduced crop production this year is due to a prolonged dry spell during May–July that resulted in less land occupied by crops. The decline in production is also due to the fact that many people were displaced by unusually high levels of conflict this year. The current size of the displaced population is estimated at 350,000 people.
The persistence and increasing incidences of conflict remain of great concern. Past conflicts were typically over grazing and water resources during the dry season, but are now a mix of inter–ethnic/tribal tensions, historical hostilities, revenge attacks, and cattle raiding practices. There is concern that below–normal rains have resulted in below–normal water levels, which are likely to cause water and pasture shortages and increased potential for resource–based conflicts. Reduced water levels will also reduce fish availability and access, especially in the Western and Eastern Flood Plains.
