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Uganda

Uganda Food Security Outlook Oct 2009 to Mar 2010

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Household food security in bimodal districts, including the northern and eastern areas, is gradually improving as the availability and access of short cycle and food security crops increase and the second season harvests begin. However, about 2.11 million people are moderately to highly food insecure in the northern, eastern, and northeastern (Karamoja) regions of the country. The UN World Food Program (WFP) is currently providing food rations to 1.15 million people in the Karamoja region.

In the October to December most likely scenario, food insecurity will continue to improve with the second season harvests in bimodal areas and in the western agricultural area of Karamoja. The food insecure population in eastern, northern, and northeastern Uganda is expected to decline to 1.38 million people, of whom 900,000 people are in Karamoja. Harvests in eastern and northern Uganda will enable the highly food insecure population in these areas to move to moderate food insecurity levels. However, continued dry conditions in agropastoral and pastoral areas of Karamoja are expected to limit livestock access to pastures and water, reducing livestock production and forcing pastoralists and agropastoralists to migrate westward to dry season grazing areas earlier than normal.

During the January to March most likely scenario, normal crop harvests will result in improved food security for households in bimodal areas, although food insecurity in northern Uganda will remain moderate as this area needs several productive seasons to become food secure. However, the number of food insecure people in Karamoja will again rise as stocks are depleted in the western agriculture zone of the region. In this scenario, the number of food insecure people is expected to increase to nearly 1.51 million in northern and northeastern Uganda.