The current food security situation remains worrisome for marginal agricultural, agropastoral, pastoral, and urban livelihoods. A succession of poor seasons since October 2007 culminated in the near-complete failure of the just-concluded yet critical short-rains season in these areas. Of increasing concern is the poor start to the 2009 long-rains season in the marginal agricultural areas and many parts of the pastoral rangeland, as purchasing capacities and coping strategies are eroded while food and non-food prices rise.
The most likely scenario between April and June 2009 points to food insecurity remaining at current levels in most areas. Crop harvesting begins in July and current rainfall trends suggest that harvests will be poor in the marginal agricultural areas. Rains have started poorly in substantial parts of the northern, southern, and northeastern pastoral areas and could contribute to deepening food insecurity. While initial rains are fair in parts of the northwestern and eastern pastoral areas, they are unlikely to translate into a major improvement in pastoral food security within three months, even though grazing fundamentals will improve. Although a planned emergency operation (EMOP) is expected to mitigate a downward slide in food security in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, food insecurity will decline during April through June in lakeshore areas affected by floods in April.
The most likely scenario between July and September suggests that food insecurity will remain poor in the marginal agricultural areas as little crop will be harvested, following the expected poor season. However, the new EMOP has been expanded to cover up to 30 percent of the population in drought-hit areas, thus minimizing the likelihood that food security will deteriorate to emergency status. The majority of pastoralists in the northern, southern, and northeastern rangelands are in a similar situation, with food security likely to deteriorate to extremely food insecure status, were it not for the planned food intervention. Although pastoralists and agropastoralists in parts of the northwest and east are likely to experience measured improvement in food security, characteristic poor spatial and temporal rainfall distribution, conflict, and disease suggest that improvements will be uneven. Such improvements are contingent upon the rains continuing through May. High food prices will also moderate local improvements in pastoral terms of trade. Poor urban households are likely to remain highly to extremely food insecure through September because the most important harvest gets into the market from October onward; food prices will remain high unless unlikely large-scale food imports are undertaken.
