FEWS NET overviews
ETHIOPIA: As expected, the current belg hunger season is particularly severe and will be longer than normal this year. In addition to high food prices and a poor belg harvest last year, the season failed this year in the north, and southern belg crops are expected to have a meager harvest 1–2 months late. In pastoral areas, the bad performance of the gu season means that the July-September dry season is likely to be exceptionally harsh. Forecasts for rainfall during the main cropping season and in northern pastoral areas are below–normal, particularly in areas of the east where production was poor this year, raising concerns that a serious food crisis could emerge in Ethiopia over the next year.
KENYA: Many areas of Kenya have experienced four consecutive below–normal seasons. The 2009 long rains have been weak, and the harvest in marginal cropping areas is expected to be very poor for the second consecutive harvest. In the "grain basket", two weeks without rain has raised concerns, and livestock mortality is on the rise in Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, and Kajiado. Food security conditions in urban, pastoral, and marginal agricultural areas will deteriorate due to drought and high maize prices through the hunger season until November. The food insecure population is expected to rise from 2.5 to 2.9 million by November.
MAURITANIA: Food security in Mauritania is likely to decline slightly between now and December, particularly in urban areas. Political instability and global economic conditions restrict trade and labor opportunities in urban areas, and 130,000 urban poor are currently food insecure. The forecast for the country suggests slight to moderate rainfall deficits between July and September. If the harvests and pastures are poor, households may engage in livestock and labor migration sooner and longer than normal. High food insecurity will continue through December among poor producers, pastoralists, and urban households without these options.
SOMALIA: Following a harsh 2009 jilaal (dry) season, the gu season has been below–normal, though better than some recent years. Conditions are particularly poor in northern pastoral areas, where drought threatens 700,000 households. Gu crops benefited from late–season rains and should be near–normal in Bakool, Hiran, Gedo, and Middle Juba, where a significant gu harvest is typically expected. Food prices remain high and conflict in the central region has increased in intensity. High and extreme food insecurity is expected to continue nationwide.
