Mission Highlights
- The 2009 aggregate (first and second seasons) cereal production is forecast at a high level of over 1 million tonnes. Wheat crop is put at a record high of about 829 000 million tonnes, one-quarter above the average crop of last year. About 20 percent is of feed quality.
- Well-distributed and timely rainfall throughout the country, the continued use of improved seeds, a complete control of migratory pest threats and increased fertiliser use compared to last year boosted plantings and yields in 2008/09.
- Potatoes and other non-cereal food crops have also substantially increased this season. Cotton production is anticipated to be reduced.
- Cereal import requirement in marketing year 2009/10 (July/June), mostly wheat, are estimated at 777 000 tonnes, a decline of 24 percent from the previous year's level. Nearly all this requirement is to be covered on commercial basis.
- Prices of wheat have declined from their peaks of a year earlier but remain well above the pre-food price crisis.
- The overall food security situation has improved but access to food by vulnerable populations continues to be affected by the high prices and lower incomes as a result of a sharp decline in remittances.
1. OVERVIEW
An FAO Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission, with the collaboration of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), was conducted in Tajikistan from 7-24 July 2009, following a request from the Government to assess the food situation in the country. The Mission was to estimate the 2009 main season (winter and spring) cereal production and forecast the secondary (summer) season cereal crops; assess the overall food supply situation; and estimate cereal import requirements for the 2009/10 marketing year (July/June).
The timing of the international component of this year's CFSAM Mission was arranged to coincide with the final weeks of a national wide assessment conducted by joint FAO Dushanbe and Ministry of Agriculture teams that covered the four regions and 47 districts of the country. The international agronomist of the Mission travelled through 23 districts with the national team leader, conducting transects en route through Sughd, RRP-Central, Khatlon-KyrganTube and Khatlon–Kulyab. During these visits key informant interviews were undertaken with District Administrators (DAOs), NGOs, farmers, traders, combine and thresher operators, and cereal crop samples were taken in harvestable fields. Prior to field visits, the international agronomist and the national team leader held detailed discussions with the MoA Heads of Departments for crops, pest control and input supply, finance and credit, and pastures and ranges to obtain first hand opinions on factors affecting production since the beginning of the cropping season last autumn (September 2008).
The overall performance of the 2009 main season cereals is far better than the previous five years and considerably better than last year due to improved yields from a greater cultivated area in both the main production zones and the country's marginal areas.
Generally, good autumn rainfall encouraged timely and widespread planting of winter cereals that was continued after the thaw in spring. The spring rains began in March throughout the country and continued in all districts until July in an unprecedented manner, obviating the need for irrigation of cereals in all but one district visited by the teams. Consequently, farmers have, universally, taken advantage of the rains with a 25 percent increase in the area planted to cereals achieved by a reduction in cotton area of some 30 percent and increased planting of cereals in hilly plateaux, sloping hill sides, and areas of irrigable land without functioning irrigation systems.
A migratory pest-free year due to the timely control of the annual locust threat and a better supply of fertilisers due to better access to Uzbekistan's products albeit at a slightly higher price is apparently reflected in a greater use of fertilisers on cereals this year. Despite widespread lodging of long straw wheat varieties that reduced harvestable crops, yields per hectare have increased in all sectors reflected in a national wheat yield estimated at 2.44 t/ha, compared with 2.17 t/ha last season.
Good rainfall in the high mountain pastures and foothills during autumn boosted animal body condition at mating time which has been reflected in normal birth rates this year. The well-distributed rains throughout spring and early summer have made this a very good grazing/hay producing year with hay prices noted to be dropping by 70 percent in all districts compared to last year. No reports of contagious diseases were noted and generally animal body condition is very good.
The Mission puts the 2009 aggregate cereal production at a record level of 1.03 million tonnes. This is about 31 percent above last year's State Statistics Committee (SSC) post-harvest estimates and 18 percent above the average returns for the previous five years. Production of the first cereal season is estimated at 943 000 tonnes (88 percent wheat) and that of the second summer season, not harvested at the time of the Mission, is forecast by MoA at some 85 000 tonnes, mainly maize. As a result of the sharp increase in production, import requirements of cereals in marketing year 2009/10 (July/June), mostly wheat, are estimated at 777 000 tonnes, a decline of about 24 percent from the previous year's level.
The overall food security situation is expected to improve in 2009/10 reflecting a widespread good harvest this year. However, the still relatively high level of food prices give rise to concern for the food security of vulnerable populations, who spend a large share of their incomes on food and whose incomes have been reduced due to a sharp decline in remittances.
