by Guillaume Lavallee
KHARTOUM, May 10, 2009 (AFP) - The latest rebel offensive on Ndjamena risks destabilising Sudan's neighbouring Darfur region where they are based and whose six-year civil war is inextricably linked with the Chadian rebellion.
Relations between Chad and Sudan have been difficult for more than six years with the two neighbours regularly accusing each other of supporting rebel factions fighting against their respective regimes.
Chad said on Sunday that President Idriss Deby Itno's forces have defeated the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), an alliance of Chadian rebels led by Timan Erdimi, after they entered eastern Chad in hundreds of trucks on May 4.
A French military source said that the rebels had retreated back to the border with Darfur, although the rebels have insisted the fight is far from over.
Sudan analyst Gerard Prunier says that Khartoum's desire is for the UFR to take power in Ndjamena and thus eliminate rear bases in Chad used by rebels from Darfur's Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).
"With the Erdimi brothers (Timan and Tom) in power, JEM would be sandwiched and the threat they represent to the Sudanese government greatly reduced," said Prunier.
But others fear what might happen when the UFR rebels cross back into Darfur, with Chad reserving the right to pursue the insurgents across the border into Sudan.
"Are they going to come back (to Sudan)? And what will the Sudanese government do? We don't know. But our fear is that this might reignite the violence in western Darfur," said Rodolphe Adada, who heads the UN-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID).
Some in Khartoum are wary of a repeat of an unprecedented attack launched in May 2008 by allegedly Chadian-backed JEM rebels, currently the greatest armed threat to the regime, on Khartoum's twin city Omdurman.
The government eventually fought off the JEM assault which saw the insurgents reach Khartoum's outskirts with the declared intent of toppling the regime.
"Chad supported JEM (during last year's attack) and they will do it again," said Sudanese foreign ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq.
Tensions between the two countries, which analysts say are conducting a proxy war, were exacerbated by the International Criminal Court's March 4 decision to charge Sudan's president with alleged war crimes in Darfur.
"Ever since Sudanese President Omar al-Beshir was charged the situation in Sudan has become very explosive, very fragile," said Prunier. "Destroying JEM's rear bases is the dream" for Khartoum.
Chad has openly accused Sudan of being behind the latest rebel offensive, charges denied by Khartoum and the rebels themselves.
"We are not auxiliaries of the Sudanese army," Timan Erdimi told AFP during an interview near Darfur's Chadian border shortly before the latest offensive began, while admitting Khartoum's tacit agreement for their presence in Sudan.
A UN Security Council meeting in New York on Friday unanimously condemned the rebel offensive, which came shortly after Ndjamena and Khartoum signed the latest in a series of peace accords, none of which has had any lasting effect.
The United Nations says the six-year conflict has claimed 300,000 lives and that more than 2.2 million people have fled their homes since ethnic minority rebels in Darfur rose up against the regime in February 2003.
Sudan says 10,000 people have been killed.
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Received by NewsEdge Insight: 05/10/2009 10:08:30
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