New reports indicate that Desert Locust swarms have been moving east across northern Somalia and reached the northeast on 6 June. Two days later, an immature swarm flew over Erigavo and moved north into the nearby Golis Mountains. There is a high probability that other small swarms are still present on the plateau east of Hargeisa and Burao in the Sanaag and Bari regions of the northeast. The swarms are immature and highly mobile. They are not mature enough to lay eggs now. As ecological conditions are mainly dry and unfavourable, there is a high risk that the swarms will continue to move east and northeast towards Bosaso and the Gulf of Aden.
The southwest monsoon winds are expected to carry most of the swarms across the Gulf of Aden to the southern shores of the Arabian Peninsula where they are likely to appear briefly along the coast of eastern Yemen and southern Oman in the next few days. From there, the swarms are expected to move northeast along the dry eastern coast of Oman and cross the Arabian Sea to the coast of Pakistan and to the Rann of Kutch, India before reaching the summer breeding areas along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border in about a week from now.
Given the current situation and the uncertainty about the scale of the potential migration, countries should be proactive and take preventive steps by mounting surveys in the following areas to monitor the arrival and movement of any swarms from northern Somalia:
- Yemen - coastal areas from Al Ghaydah to the Oman border (immediately for at least one week)
- Oman - coastal areas from Salalah to Sur (from 13 June for at least one week)
- Pakistan - coastal areas from Gwadar to the India border (from about 17 June) and eastern desert areas of Tharparkar and Cholistan
- India - coastal areas of Gujarat (from about 18 June) and interior areas of Gujarat and Rajastan
The swarms are likely to be highly mobile and difficult to control. If any swarms arrive in the summer breeding areas along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border, they will mature quickly and lay eggs with the onset of the seasonal monsoon rains later this month.
In Ethiopia, an immature swarm appeared in the highlands north of Addis Ababa on 10 June. Survey teams have been mobilized in all areas. A few more swarms from northwest Somalia may appear in the northern Rift Valley and move through the Afar region to northwest Ethiopia (Amhara and Tigray regions) and perhaps continue towards the summer breeding areas in western Eritrea and central Sudan.
