- The karan/karma rainy season ended poorly in September, and seasonal rainfall totals were below average levels. Pasture and water availability have improved slightly but are likely to be insufficient through the October to March dry season in the Northwest pastoral livelihood zone. LIvestock:cereal terms of trade remain unfavorable for pastoralists as a result of the high and increasing cost of staple foods.
- The October to February coastal rains have started poorly with a delay of around two weeks. If El Niño conditions develop further, seasonal rainfall will likely be above normal, which will positively affect pastoral conditions in coastal areas. Livestock may then migrate to coastal grazing areas, increasing the competition for limited resources in those areas.
- The price of staple foods increased again in September, and the cost of the minimum expenditure basket remains unaffordable for poor households. These households in urban and rural areas are struggling to consume the minimum caloric requirements, and many may become extremely food insecure. Cash– or food–for–work programs or direct food distributions need to continue for the coming six months in urban areas.
