- About 17 million people in the East Africa region are food insecure (Figure 1) and are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. This is mainly due to the cumulative effects of poor rainfall/droughts in pastoral and marginal cropping areas in the eastern sector of the region, civil insecurity/conflict and consequent population displacement and disruption to markets, and high food prices.
- In the most likely scenario for October to December 2009, the October to December rains are expected to be above normal due to the El Niño event, particularly in the eastern drought affected sector. This will result in improved water and pasture availability in pastoral areas, and heightened prospects for off season and expanded crop planting in marginal cropping areas. However, immediate recovery and significant food security improvements in these areas are unlikely.
- The beneficial effects of above normal rains could be undermined by flooding in riverine areas, particularly in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, causing increased risk of waterborne diseases, damage to infrastructure and assets, and disruption to markets and aid deliveries. October to December is the harvesting season for the main cropping areas of Kenya and Ethiopia, and El Niño-induced unseasonable rains could cause crop losses during the harvest period, compounding the already expected below-average harvests. Food prices will continue to be above the five-year average in most areas, although some declines will likely occur during October to December in most parts of the region, due to incoming harvests and significant declines in world food prices. The food insecure population could decline marginally during the October-December period, although the number could rise if the anticipated floods cause population displacements.
- In the most likely scenario for January to March 2010, the usually dry and harsh season is expected to be milder and shorter, particularly for the lowland pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. The above normal rains are expected to continue into January 2009, enriching pastures, further recharging water points, and heightening prospects for off season cropping. Continued rains would also enhance water resources for irrigation, domestic and commercial use, and hydropower production, which could improve urban food security. In most countries, food prices are expected to remain above five year averages, although the harvests and improving world prices could cause declines. Overall, food security improvements in pastoralist and marginal cropping areas are expected, although full recovery requires several successive good seasons. Thus, the food insecure population could continue to decline marginally during this period.
Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions - October 2009
Source: FEWS NET
For more information on FEWS NET's Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale
