Food insecurity is showing signs of improvement as the consumption of green crops has been reported, signaling the arrival of the long delayed harvest of early maturing crops. The main harvest is likely from the end of October through the end of November. Up to 1.3 million people were food insecure by the end of September, mainly located in Northern Bahr El Gazal, Warrap and Jonglei States.
Significant food security improvements are expected with the onset of the harvest at the end of October, especially in the western half of Southern Sudan. However, some of these improvements are only likely to last until December January due to likely reduced crop harvests resulting from this year's prolonged dry spell. The extent and magnitude of the yield reduction will be established by the Southern Sudan led Government Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) scheduled between October 26 and November 13.
Of greatest concern during the October 2009 to March 2010 period are the persistence and increasing incidences of conflict. Whereas conflict has traditionally tended to occur over grazing and water resources during the dry season, conflicts have escalated this year and are a mix of inter ethnic/tribal tensions, historical hostilities, revenge attacks, and cattle raiding practices. The most severe conflicts are those between the Nuer tribe in the Eastern Flood Plains and the Murle tribe in the Pastoral Zone, and the attacks by Ugandan rebels (Lords Resistance Army LRA) in the Greenbelt Zone. This year, conflict alone has displaced over 250,000 people who currently comprise close to 20 percent of the total food insecure population in Southern Sudan.
Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, September 2009
