JAKARTA, 27 November 2009 (IRIN) - Predicting earthquakes is an inexact science - which is why disaster preparedness remains key to saving lives, scientists say.
Experts have forecast that a long undersea faultline along Indonesia's Sumatra Island is due to produce a powerful and devastating earthquake in the next few decades.
Sections of the fault, called the Sunda megathrust, have ruptured a number of times over the past decade, causing several earthquakes in the region.
A major earthquake could trigger a tsunami that could result in casualties and damage equal to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, writes Kerry Sieh, a scientist at the Earth Observatory of Singapore, in an article made available to IRIN.
"To those living in harm's way [on] the coasts of western Sumatra, it should be useful to know that the next great earthquake and tsunami are likely to occur within the next few decades, well within the lifetimes of children and young adults living there now," the article states.
A magnitude 7.9 earthquake that devastated West Sumatra province and killed more than 1,100 people on 30 September originated near that faultline, according to experts.
"We don't know when such a great earthquake will happen. It could be tomorrow, next year or the next five years," said Fauzi, head of the Earthquake Center at the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency in Jakarta, who like many Indonesians only uses one name.
"It will be much more beneficial if we focus on preparedness. Earthquakes don't kill, but collapsed buildings do," he told IRIN.
Fauzi said between 1991 and 2009, Indonesia was hit by 43 major earthquakes, 15 of which generated tsunamis. The 30 September quake in West Sumatra resulted in a tsunami, though it was very small, he said.
Predicting earthquakes is also a sensitive issue in Indonesia and false rumours could create panic, Fauzi warned. "When scientists say an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 is likely to occur based on scientific findings, people refuse to go to school or work and SMS relatives," he said. "The public talks about tomorrow, while scientists talk about years."
Forecasting
Wahyu Triyoso, a geologist with the Bandung Institute of Technology, said the magnitude of an earthquake correlates with the size of the fault.
"If we could measure the amount of slip precisely, probably we could make rough estimates and we can make necessary preparations," he told IRIN. "Forecasting means little if we don't know the fault size, the dimension, length and width."
Triyoso said even though knowledge of a potential earthquake was useful for scientists, it would be hard to communicate to the general public.
"If we say a certain place is dangerous and the public panic, it could become a social disaster," he said. "So at the moment, preparedness is the best course of action," he said.
In West Sumatra, an NGO called the Tsunami Alert Community (Kogami) has been working to instil a culture of preparedness among the population since 2005.
Kogami has been providing training on disaster preparedness in schools and communities in the provincial capital Padang, teaching them what to do should an earthquake and a tsunami hit.
The group has mapped out evacuation routes, with high-risk areas zoned red, while low-risk areas are zoned yellow.
It is introducing similar programmes in other districts in cooperation with other NGOs.
"Many people [live] in fear because they have received little information about earthquakes and what to do when a disaster happens," said Patra Rina Dewi, Kogami's executive director.
"We know we live in an earthquake zone and our job is to equip people with necessary knowledge," she said.
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