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Armenia

FAST Update Armenia: Trends in conflict and cooperation Jul - Aug 2007

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The political situation in Armenia for this period was dominated by preparations for the country's approaching presidential election, set for February 2008. This pre-election period consists of a rather uneven contest between the country's still divided opposition and the presidential front-runner representing the ruling elite, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian. While hindered by a degree of unpopularity, which was confirmed by the findings of a public opinion survey in late August, the Armenian premier still holds a firm position as the unofficial successor to outgoing incumbent President Robert Kocharian. As the latest in a series of quarterly surveys designed and coordinated by the U.S.-based Gallup Organization and commissioned by the U.S. International Republican Institute (IRI), the survey revealed that Sarkisian has the support from a mere 11 percent of the population.

A trend of isolated, yet disturbing violence has also emerged in recent months (see last Update) and unlike the previous period, which experienced a slowdown of conflictive events after the parliament elections in May, it suggests a potential for greater conflict as the election approaches (see graph). This conflict is not defined by a traditional clash between the ruling authorities and the marginalized political opposition but is more of an internal competition within the political elite. The opposition, on the other hand, has attempted to overcome its inherent divisions and rivalries, which have served to fragment and marginalize it for so long. The leaders of five opposition parties met in late August to discuss the "hypothetical possibility" of closing ranks behind a single challenger to the incumbent leadership candidate in the presidential election. But even these talks soon broke down over the competing ambitions of the rivaling opposition figures resulting in a failure to even agree on the selection of a unified candidate.

The talks did lead to an unexpected turning point for the country's opposition, however. This turning point was first revealed by the election results with the emergence of a new opposition replacing the older, more traditional opposition in the new parliament. This also means that the "old guard" opposition, including Stepan Demirchian (People's Party of Armenia), Artashes Geghamian (National Accord party) and Soviet-era dissident Paruyr Hairikian (National Self-Determination Union), has past its political prime. Their political irrelevance is apparent by their lack of success in past presidential elections and they are seen as offering little new in terms of platform or promise. Other opposition heavyweights have also failed to emerge as serious contenders. The National Democratic Union Chairman Vazgen Manukian, whom several opposition parties jointly backed in the 1996 presidential ballot, did not even bother to attend the opposition negotiations because he had already announced his intention to participate in the 2008 election. The former Prime Minister and Hanrapetutiun (Republic) party leader Aram Sargsian has hinted that he would support former President Levon Ter-Petrossian should the latter decide to run. Thus, the emergence of a newer, younger and generally more dynamic opposition combined with the demise of the "old guard" tends to guarantee a leading role for former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian. The former Parliamentary Speaker Artur Baghdasarian (by no means a new political figure) joined the opposition ranks late in summer of 2006 and was able to still retain a platform in parliament.

Despite the significance of a new, more dynamic and younger opposition, the closed nature of the Armenian political system inherently limits and restricts the impact and power of any political party or group seeking to counter the entrenched ruling elite. In addition, each of these opposition leaders faces their own challenges. Baghdasarian, for example, has been seriously weakened by a series of internal problems and defections from his Orinats Yerkir party. Hovannisian is also hindered by a sense of insecurity in his new role as deputy. He seems not yet comfortable or assured in his role as parliamentarian and still articulates a political platform more appropriate for a foreign minister than a member of parliament. For example, his recent introduction of a new bill in parliament calling on Armenia to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) as an independent state is only the latest in a series of statements and political moves reflecting a new "hard line" and more maximalist nationalist agenda. While the move was most likely a tactical play for nationalist populism, the response was widely negative even from within the traditionally more hard line Armenian Diaspora. Similarly, his release of a formal statement welcoming the recent election of Turkish President Abdullah G=FCl was rather inappropriate. This is especially since he was the only parliamentarian to make such a statement suggesting that he is more comfortable as a foreign policy player than as a deputy with a more limited mandate.