General Situation during October 2009
Forecast until mid-December 2009
An outbreak of Desert Locust developed in early October in western Mauritania. Control operations were in progress against a second generation of hatchlings and hoppers that were forming small concentrated groups and a few bands. The outbreak should be contained by early December unless unusually heavy and widespread rains fall in November. In that case, small swarms could form in early December and move north into southern Morocco, Western Sahara and northern Mauritania and breed, causing a significant increase locust members that could lead to a regional upsurge. Elsewhere, the situation remained calm and vegetation was drying out in most areas. Only isolated adults were seen in parts of the northern Sahal Western Africa and on the Red Sea coast in Yemen. During the forecast period, low numbers of locusts may persist in a few parts of the northern Mali and Niger, and in northeast Chad. Small-scale breeding is likely yo occur along both sides of the Red Sea.
Western Region. A potentially dangerous outbreak developed in western Mauritania in late September and early October. Additional national teams were deployed to conduct survey and control operations, treated nearly 4,000 ha. The outbreak is smaller than in 2003 and Mauritania is better prepared with sufficient resources to combat new hopper groups as they form during November. Very little rain fell in the Region during october, which means that breeding is likely to end shortly unless more rain fall. This combined with effective control operations against primarily hopper infestations, should reduce locust numbers and bring the situation under control and stop the migration of adults towards the north. So far, only isolated solitarious immature adults have arrived in adjacent areas of southern Morocco and Western Sahara. Elesewhere, low numbers of adults were present in central Mali, southern Algeria, northern Miger and Chad. Small-scale breeding may have occured in some of these places during October.
Central Region. Very little rain fell during October in the Region except for light showers on the Red Sea coast of Yemen where low numbers of locusts were present. Consequently, small-scale breeding is likely to occur during the forecast period, causing locust numbers to increase slightly. Elsewhere, a ground team treated solitarious hoppers and adults at one place in the northern highlands of Ethiopia, and isolated adults were seen on the northern Red SEa coastal plains in Eritrea. During the forecast period, low numbers of adults are likely to appear on the Red Sea coast of Sudan, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia, and breed on a small scale in any areas that receive rainfall. No significant developments are likely.
Eastern Region. No significant rain fell during October and no locusts were reported in the Region. The situation will remain calm during the forecasr period.
