Key Findings
The food security situation in all livelihoods of Somalia remains as classified during the post Gu '09 assessment (June-July '09). The early Deyr rains have begun to improve the situation in the drought affected north and the central areas. There is a good off-season cereal and cash crop production in Juba regions in the south. Cereal prices have decreased in the south, except in areas that suffered from Gu '09 crop failure. The urban poor food security situation is showing improvement in the south, northeast and northwest, where declines in the cost of minimum basket are observed. However, for the urban poor the situation has deteriorated in central regions due to increased cereal prices and reduced social support. The central regions also have the largest number of population displaced due to the drought. The overall civil security situation has worsened in the south and central causing displacement of over 100,000 people since July '09.
Climate:
During Hagaa dry season scattered showers were received in parts of Juba, Shabelle and Bay regions in July-August. At the same time, Karan rains in the northwest were erratic, below average and ended early. The rest of Somalia remained dry up to September when early Deyr '09 rains started in the central and the northern regions. These rains continued into October. Substantial rainfall received in the Juba and Shabelle river catchment areas within Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands have led to localized and flash flooding along the Shabelle River in Hiran and Shabelle regions in last days of Oct. There is an increased risk of further flooding in the coming weeks for both the Juba and Shabelle rivers.
Civil Insecurity:
The security situation in the south and the central regions has deteriorated due to intensified clashes between government forces and insurgents, causing civilian causalities, injuries and population displacement. UNHCR estimated that 123,000 people were displaced in Somalia since July '09, mainly due to insecurity and conflict, while drought and loss of livelihood are the second main reason for displacement, mostly affecting central and south regions. The deteriorated political situation in the northwest in view of presidential elections has stabilized after political rivals signed the agreement at the end of September.
Agriculture:
FSNAU off-season assessment estimated good off-season production of maize and cash crops (sesame, cowpea) in Juba regions. Early Deyr rains improved the conditions of established crops in the south, as well as in the northwest, and have encouraged farmers to accelerate Deyr planting. Cereal prices have decreased in the southern regions of Shabelle, Bay and Juba as a result of good Gu and off-season harvest. However, in Sorghum Belt markets of Gedo, Bakool and Hiran, sorghum prices have increased due to very poor Gu '09 production. Commercial cereal imports in July-Sept. '09 were 50% higher compared to the 3-year average (2006-2008) for the same period.
Livestock:
Pasture and water conditions have improved following the good Deyr rains. Although livestock body conditions show improvement, livestock reproduction is below average due to low calving and kidding due to low conception during the peak of the drought. Livestock sales increased in Aug.-Oct. because of the increased demand for Hajj. The level of livestock export during Aug.-Sept. '09 is 20% higher than the same period last year. Local quality goat prices have been stable in most regions, with a slight decrease in the Juba regions and increase in the central regions.
Markets:
The Somali Shilling has appreciated marginally (2-4%) in July-Sept. '09, but depreciation is still equivalent to 90-95% compared to the 5-year average. The Somaliland Shilling has also gained value slightly (6%) after several months of devaluation. The price of sugar increased throughout Somalia. Additionally, prices increased for vegetable oil in the central regions and for petrol and rice in the northwest. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged in most areas, with the exception of the central regions, where it increased by 21% since June '09, mostly due to the increased prices of sorghum and wheat flour.
Nutrition:
FSNAU and partner agencies are currently conducting livelihood based nutrition surveys in Central, Hiran and Togdheer regions. Nevertheless, the latest figures from selective feeding centres treating moderately and severely malnourished children in south and central Somalia report a varied picture with many locations seeing increasing trends of admissions in recent months as illustrated in the feeding centers in Bakool, Central and Mogadishu. As a result of the confirmed cases of cholera and the elevated cases of acute watery diarrhea in most parts of south Somalia, and concern that the ongoing cholera outbreak might spread due to the high proportion of IDPs in some of the regions, WHO and partners are intensifying preventive activities and case detection and management in the affected areas. More details are available in the Somalia Health Cluster Bulletin Sept. '09 and the WHO Oct. 15, '09 Bulletin.
Urban:
FSNAU carried out a seventh round of the rapid quarterly urban emergency assessment in main regional towns throughout Somalia. The analysis indicates that urban households' access to food has begun to improve since June '09 in most areas, with the exception of the central regions. Urban households in the south, the north and northwest are able to cover the cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB), however, poor households are still reliant on either remittances, cash gifts or loans to cover between 20-25% of this minimum expenditure basket. In contrast, the deterioration in central regions is mainly caused by increased prices of cereals, subsequent increased cost of the minimum expenditure basket and reduced social support in these regions. Preliminary analysis of nutrition data from the urban assessment using MUAC conducted in Oct. '09 indicates concerning findings in Galkayo. Detailed nutrition analysis will be shared in the Sept.-Oct. '09 FSNAU Nutrition Update.
