Iraq has made significant progress in defeating the insurgency and improving its security. The level of violence in Iraq is sharply lower than the levels that peaked in 2007. It is now dropping below the average levels that existed at the beginning of the insurgency in 2004, and most of the violence related to the Sunni insurgency is now concentrated in Baghdad; and in Diyala, Ninewa, and Salah ad Din provinces in central and northern Iraq. Although there have been several extraordinarily bloody bombings – particularly on August 19th and 25th, Al Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) and other Sunni insurgent and terrorist groups have lost much of their strength, influence, and the ability to carry out frequent operations.
The threat posed by the Sadr militia, various Shiite factions like the Special Groups, and other Shiite militias has been sharply reduced and the Sadr and the Sadrist party are now part of the Shiite political alliance. Fears that the US military withdrawal from Iraq's cities in June 2009 would trigger new rounds of internal violence have so far proved to be sharply exaggerated.
The Iraq War, however, is anything but "won" if this means reducing violence to levels that allow civil society and the economy to function without bombings and other large-scale incidents of violence, and reducing all of these threats to a level that largely eliminates the risk of new outbreaks of major ethnic and sectarian violence.
Levels of Violence
The level of violence in Iraq has dropped sharply since the years of open civil war during 2006-2008. Figure II.1 to Figure II.5 shows the decline in levels of violent incidents by total and type. The drop in violence is clear since the surge against Sunni insurgents in 2007, and the operations in Basra and against the Sadr forces elsewhere in the country in 2008.
Figure II.6 show that there were no major rises in violence as the US withdrew from Iraqi cities in June 2009. This figure is particularly important because it shows there is no longer a direct correlation between the size and presence of US forces in Iraq. It should be noted, however, that most US forces did remain in Iraq, became active in securing the perimeter of Iraqi cities, and continued to support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in a variety of joint security missions inside urban areas.
© The Center for Strategic & International Studies
