- The bumper main wheat harvest in 2009, decrease in cereal prices, and good food aid coverage are encouraging signs for the current food security situation in Afghanistan.
- In Afghanistan, winter is a tough time for the majority of the population. Heavy snow typically blocks the main access roads between the provinces and main food markets, and also creates problems for humanitarian actors to access certain areas for food aid and other humanitarian assistance. Usually in the areas where access is a problem, food prices increase. In addition, food and fuel prices begin to rise, affecting access to food and markets.
- Adding to the access problems, the currently vague political future of the country, insurgency and military operations, warinduced migration, high numbers of deportations from Iran and Pakistan, and decreasing employment opportunities during winter contribute to ongoing food insecurity in many parts of the country.
Current food security conditions
The bumper wheat harvest in 2009, 50 percent decrease in food prices compared to the same period last year, and good food aid coverage during 2009 are encouraging signs for the improvement of food security conditions in Afghanistan over the course of 2009. However, with the onset of winter, the most likely next six–month scenario is that conditions will begin deteriorating gradually to highly and moderately food–insecure levels. The highly food insecure zone include Badakhshan, Samangan, Bamyan Day kundi, Ghor, Badghis, Uruzgan and Zabul provinces, while the moderately food insecure zones include Farah, Nimroz, Gazhni, Paktya, Paktika, Wardak, Logor, and Noristan provinces.
There are several acute food insecurity situations ongoing in the country. Unregistered war related IDPs of Hilmand and Kandahar provinces have not received any formal assistance and flood affected households in Sari Pul, Paktika and Nangarhar provinces are believed to be moderately food insecure as the assistance they receive is insufficient to meet their winter needs. Prepositioning food aid in inaccessible areas is likely to alleviate the food availability or accessibility issues that might arise from emergency winter conditions in the above mentioned provinces. Factors which may influence food security are typical seasonal trends such as poor labor demand, rising food and fuel prices, and poor market access where accessibility is an issues due to climatic conditions. Other acute factors creating a worsening food security situation include conflict, election related violence, and migrant labor deportation from Iran and Pakistan.
Internally displaced persons (IDPs)
As of the end of August, the number of total internally displaced persons (IDPs) was 256,418; the majority of them are located in the southern and eastern regions of the country. Of those, 30,939 are recent war–induced IDPs, 62,234 were from the protracted caseload from previous conflicts, 46,969 were from the protracted caseload from natural disasters, 61,829 were returnees from Pakistan, and 54,447 IDPs are unspecified. The number of war–induced IDPs around the country is increasing with time because of the deteriorating security situation and increasing military operations.
Better–off IDPs are able to migrate to urban centers, while other IDPs tend to migrate to safer provinces in the same region. Because they areas are largely inaccessible, information regarding the IDP humanitarian situation is limited. IDPs are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity because of the loss of traditional livelihoods, poor support networks, and little skills to enter an already weak national labor market.
Some IDPs receive emergency assistance from local charities and relief organizations to meet their survival needs. However, it is unlikely that IDPs will receive support to permanently relocate, and will likely be expected to return to their place of origin when the opportunity presents itself. There is a risk that host communities will not openly welcome IDPs because of the stress placed on limited resources and livelihood opportunities. IDPs are considered to be highly food insecure and in need of food assistance in the short term.
