The past weeks have been marred by serious political violence in Madagascar. While there is no clear indication and consensus on the number of casualties, it is reported that so far more than 100 people were killed in the riots opposing supporters of the mayor of Antananarivo, Andy Rajoelina and President Marc Ravalomanana. While the actions of the opposition and the mass protests are certainly a disturbing episode in the country's quest for political stability, President Ravalomanana himself has done little to reinforce the effectiveness and the credibility of the State institutions. He has frequently been accused of being autocratic, having managed to weaken the opposition movement on the island and causing people to become largely apathetic towards the political debate in Madagascar in recent years. Though the 2007 elections saw Ravalomanana win 55 percent of the votes, this did not contribute in any significant way to the political stability of the country.
Madagascar is an island of roughly 19 million people, the majority of whom live with less than a dollar a day. In an attempt to make sense of the current situation, one needs perhaps to recall that the country has been weakened by political instability for many years – if not decades. The democratisation process initiated in the 1990s has often been thwarted, leading to violent confrontation between key political forces that relied more on streets protests and violence rather than the ballot paper to gain political power. In 2001, disputed elections between former president Didier Ratsiraka and the then mayor of Antananarivo and businessman Marc Ravalomanana plunged Madagascar into widespread violence. It resulted in political turmoil and impasse that was only resolved six months later with the forced exile of Ratsiraka and the proclamation of Ravolomanana by the Constitutional Court as the legitimate president. The 2007 elections were also undermined by incidents of electoral violence and unrest, plunging Madagascar into a near permanent state of political instability.
Observably, the current outbreak of violence, more than anything else, stemmed from the absence of good governance and rampant corruption. These provided the newly elected young mayor of Antananarivo with an opportunity to fill the vacuum left by weak and emasculated opposition parties. Former public functions organiser turned independent politician, Andy Rajoelina accuse the president of abuse of power. The decision taken by the government to close down the 34-year-old mayor's TV and radio stations was one of the issues that enraged Rajoelina's supporters and sparked the violence. The government claimed that the airing of an interview with former president Ratsiraka was the reason for the closer. A controversial 99-year lease agreement for 1.3 million hectares of land signed between the government and the South Korean Multinational Company Deawoo also contributed to growing unrest.
While the government saw the interview with a former president as an affront, the mayor believes the government infringed upon citizens' freedom of expression and other constitutional rights. The mayor also argues that the land lease deal with Daewoo dispossesses the citizens of the most arable land in the country and threatens food security in Madagascar. In addition, he argues that in a country with huge unemployment, it is outrageous for the president to purchase a $60 million president jet – another sign of Ravalomanana's mismanagement, according to his rival. In reality, the antagonism between the two leaders has its roots in personal business ambition and conflicting political agendas. By suppressing the central government's funds for municipal services in 2007, Ravolomanana clearly indicated his intention to undermine the credibility of the young mayor, who won 67 percent of the votes in the 2007 municipal elections. In a country where the president's companies control most of private business, it is hard to draw a clear line between public and private interests. It has become clear that politics in Madagascar serve individual business interests rather than addressing the basic needs of the citizens. The targeting and destruction of the president's business entities by the rioters in the last few weeks is symptomatic of the frustrations of the highly indebted inhabitants of Antananarivo, who threw their support behind the young mayor.
There is little doubt that Antananarivo is a strategic center of power for politicians in Madagascar. Ravalomanana himself used it for his ascension to power and mobilised the streets to that effect. Whether the new mayor is defending the poor, his business interests or being used by the old political guard remains unclear. At this stage however it is evident that the resurgence of a political crisis might compromise Madagascar's chance to host the 13th AU Summit in July this year, as it is scheduled to do. This event is seen as an important platform for Ravalomanana to boost his legitimacy and score diplomatic points.
Meanwhile both domestic and regional actors will have to act soon to prevent further deterioration of the situation. France and the US have already called for dialogue while the UN and the AU expressed concerns and appointed mediators to facilitate the dialogue between the protagonists. It is still unclear what form the dialogue will take and what will be the content of such talks. Is a transitional government or power sharing deal - as requested by the mayor – an acceptable option? Though Rajoelina has called for a transitional government and constitutional reforms, leading up to fresh elections, it is unlikely that those demands will be met. President Ravalomanana still enjoys a certain degree of support and the best scenario in the short term will be an inquiry into the contentious issues raised by the mayor, including an investigation into the lease agreement with Daewoo. While the mayor is vying to unseat the current government, the constitutional age limit (40) bars him from taking over as a president. Rajoelina claims that other municipalities and the army support his movement.
Meanwhile the current crisis should be seen as an opportunity to undertake profound political reforms in Madagascar, based on democratic norms and institutions. The separation between the State and personal business interests will enhance good governance and help in ensuring a fair distribution of available resources. Unless this is done, Madagascar will remain a matter of concern for the sub-region. The opposition resistance will continue to be met with a government counter-offensive, and this will lead to more victims of political violence. The economic gains made over the past few years will be erased and Madagascar will not be able to address the enormous socio-economic challenges facing its citizens.
Dr David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
