Food security has deteriorated in northern and northeastern parts of Ngorongoro, Longido, Monduli (Arusha Region), Simanjiro (Manyara Region), and the lowlands of Kilimanjaro and Tanga regions, affecting mainly pastoral and agropastoral households, and marginal agricultural households in the lowlands of Kilimanjaro. According to the September 2009 Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) conducted by the Food Security Information Team (FSIT), there are currently more than 1.5 million food insecure people in 63 districts, across 15 regions. This estimate marks a five-fold increase over the figure of 279,607 food insecure people established by the March 2009 RVA. Despite this significant increase, food needs are expected to be met through free and subsidized government distributions beginning in November.
The RVA attributes the rise in the food insecure population to poor harvests and decreased livestock productivity due to the failed vuli (October to January) and masika rains (March to June) in parts of the bimodal areas and below normal, unevenly distributed msimu rains (November to May) in unimodal areas. In some parts of the northern, northeastern, coastal, central and coastal areas, production was below normal, although total food production during the 2008/09 agricultural cycle was 10.8 million MT, six percent greater than the five-year average. Crop production was also hindered by crop pests and diseases, including Quelea-quelea birds, cassava mosaic disease, and Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW), particularly in the regions around Lake Victoria. However, most markets are now well supplied with food, as surplus production has moved to deficit areas of the country.
Food insecurity in the affected areas is principally driven by lack of access to food constrained by low income opportunities resulting from the poor production, and high food prices. Poor households in rural areas are highly dependent on agricultural labor opportunities for income, and have therefore been affected by the reduction in labor. Purchasing power has also been constrained by high food prices. Prices of all food commodities have remained higher than the five-year averages, and October prices for maize, beans, and rice in monitored markets ranged from 79 to 100 percent higher than the five-year (2003-2008) averages.
