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Cook Islands + 1 more

APCEDI ALERT 10F #19, 2005: Powerful category 5 super-cycloe Percy bears down on Palmerston atoll

The JTWC is now estimating maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 140 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy now lies 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston Atoll and is moving southsoutheast as 10 kt.

Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest earlier today which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston, but unfortunately, it is now jogging back southsoutheast tonight erasing most of the westward gain. So for Palmerston, it is very much a matter of waiting another 6-18 hours to see how close the storm will come. Current forecasts have the eye coming within 65-95 miles west to southwest of Palmerston. That would result in a very strong tidal surge and damaging storm force winds. Current winds on Palmerston are NE 30 kt gusting to 35 kt, with periodic squalls. The next high tide will be tomorrow morning just after dawn.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Storm Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place tonight and tomorrow. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules landed in Penrhyn this afternoon and loading of supplies onto the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa will be finished tomorrow morning. The Mataroa will arrive in Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy is moving southsoutheast at 10 kt toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston. Percy is now a very powerful Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to maintain current strength over the next 12-36 hours and gradually weaken thereafter. After passing Palmerston the storm is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 200 miles from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain off shore.

Situation on Swain's Island

The good news today is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. A C-130 plane is currently flying from Pago Pago over Swains and will be dropping a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls

Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued and in American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change tonight and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should continue to be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.