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Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka 2005 post-tsunami recovery program - Preliminary damage and needs assessment

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A. INTRODUCTION

1. At the request of the Government of Sri Lankan (GOSL), a joint mission comprising of staff from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), and the World Bank initiated a joint assessment of the damage caused by the December 26, 2004 tsunami. The event affected coastal areas of Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, the Maldives, Mauritius, Myanmar, Reunion, Seychelles, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Thailand.

2. The objectives of the mission were to conduct an initial assessment of the damage caused by the tsunami, in cooperation among the three agencies and in coordination with the Government at the national, provincial, district and local levels, civil society, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and other stakeholders. In parallel, the team was also asked to assess the preliminary needs of the affected communities in terms of the medium to longer term reconstruction and recovery phases following the relief period. This coastal areas damage and needs assessment should serve as a platform for all development partners interested in contributing to the rehabilitation effort. This assessment process has also been coordinated with the United Nations (UN) agencies and bilateral donor organizations. The team worked closely with and drew heavily upon the work of the "Task Force for Rebuilding the Nation (TAFREN)" and the Department of National Planning of the Ministry of Finance and Planning, which had already produced a first estimate of the damages prior to the arrival of the team. It also benefited from the assessment work undertaken by the Planning and Development Secretariat of the LTTE.

3. Development of a sound needs assessment in a participatory manner requires several weeks or even months. At the same time, it is important to identify early on the approximate magnitude of the overarching needs, set key policies, define possible implementation and financing mechanisms, and begin restoration activities wherever possible. Based upon this preliminary draft document, consultations with the Government, LTTE, civil society and other development partners will continue and their inputs regarding the assessment will be taken into consideration. In parallel, the assessment will be refined as new data and information become available. The team aims to finalize the report in April 2005.

4. For purposes of conducting the initial damage and needs assessment, the ADB has focused on the transport sector (roads and railways), livelihood restoration, and the simplification of procurement procedures; JBIC/JICA evaluated the power and water supply sectors; the International Labor Organization (ILO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provided inputs on the fisheries sector and other livelihoods; and, the World Bank -- with inputs of World Health Organization (WHO) and German KFW -- considered impacts to health, education, agriculture and livestock, tourism, private housing, social and environmental systems, and the overall economic impact. In addition, contributions on strategic issues were provided by UK Department for International Development (DFID).The initial damage and needs assessment did not factor in destroyed private assets that perished along with the devastated houses, the destruction to other public sector buildings, mine action and the impact of the tsunami on tourism outside the tsunami-affected areas. These are not anticipated to exceed 10% of the total anticipated need of reconstruction.

5. The team met with various stakeholders representing the Government, the private sector, international organizations, the LTTE, members of academia, and locally based non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in the emergency response and recovery phases. The mission team also participated in field visits to the districts of Amparai, Batticaloa, Galle, Hambantota, Jaffna, Matara, Mullaitivu, and Trincomalee. Team members discussed with representatives from affected communities the extent of the damage, identified the current needs, and verified data collected by the Government and other sources to the extent possible.

6. This document summarizes the preliminary findings and recommendations of the assessment team and highlights long term hazard risk management issues to be considered in order to reduce the impacts of future natural disasters on Sri Lanka.

B. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7. In Sri Lanka, the tsunami that struck on the morning of December 26, 2004 left behind widespread destruction and killed over 31,000 people, destroyed over 99,000 homes, and damaged natural ecosystems, and coastal infrastructure. Vulnerable groups, such as poor fishermen living close to the shore in simple houses and shelters, have borne the brunt of the negative impacts. Apart from the coastal communities already being comparatively poor in the Sri Lankan context, the tsunami has compounded previously existing vulnerabilities: the North East is the region worst affected by the tsunami. The percentage of the coastal population affected ranges from an estimated 35 percent in Kilinochi to 80 percent in Mullaitivu and 78 percent in Amparai coastal district divisions compared to the southern districts of Galle, Matara, and Hambantota with less than 20 percent of the coastal population affected, albeit with scattered pockets of severe damage. Overview of Damage and Needs

8. Overall damage is estimated to be around $1 billion (4.5 percent of GDP). However, many of these assets were concentrated in the private sector. The largest share of output losses appear in the fisheries and tourism sectors due to lost income and production. Many coastal fishermen and small scale farmers' livelihoods were impacted by the tsunami, causing greater vulnerability to poverty. In addition, many people working in the informal sector who service the fisheries and tourism sectors and communities also lost their livelihoods temporarily; thus many may fall further into poverty in what were already poor areas. Losses to livelihoods are not listed separately in the table below in order to avoid double counting, as these losses have been incorporated into the fisheries, tourism, and agriculture sectors. It is also important to take into consideration that output losses are more difficult to estimate than asset losses, as figures depend upon extrapolation from existing data.

9. Overall incremental financing needs are estimated to amount to be around $1.5 to 1.6 billion. This is in addition to the $2-300 million that the GoSL estimates that it has already spent, and excludes further relief expenditures. In the short term, the majority of resources are required for housing, transportation infrastructure, and livelihood restoration for fishermen, small farmers, small and micro enterprises, and others. The recovery needs run parallel to the level of damage sustained by each sector, with some variation depending upon the recovery strategy and its intent to replace damaged assets with those of equal value, as in the cases of housing and health, or with upgrades to services and infrastructure, as in the cases of power, water supply and sanitation, and transportation (especially railways). In aggregate, this is very close to TAFREN's current estimate (although with more significant differences at the sector level), and consistent with preliminary estimates released by LTTE. These estimates can be expected to converge over the coming weeks of further joint analysis.


Table 1: Preliminary Estimates of Losses and Financing Needs ($ Millions)


*Includes estimates from livelihoods damage assessment of fishermen, small farmers, and small businesses in tourism totaling $140 million.
**Targeted assistance to vulnerable groups.
*** Includes items mentioned at the end of paragraph 4 and is estimated at about 10% of the total.
****Refers to 2005 and 2006. Source: Government of Sri Lanka and staff estimates.

10. The assessment report emphasizes the need to take into account guiding principles -- such as conflict sensitivity, subsidiarity, community empowerment, transparency, hazard risk management and coordination between stakeholders -- during the development of a comprehensive recovery strategy.

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