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Sudan

Sudan: Do Americans care about Darfur? - An International Crisis Group/Zogby international opinion survey

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I. INTRODUCTION
For too long, the international approach to the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur has been defined by tough rhetoric followed by half-measures and inaction. This general lack of resolve has ensured that widespread attacks against civilians have been conducted with relative immunity in Darfur, and the grinding humanitarian situation has continued to take a heavy toll by any calculation. Major international players have justified their failure to resolve the situation by citing an array of bureaucratic, diplomatic and political hurdles that stand in the way of a more robust response to the situation on the ground.

In that light, the International Crisis Group was particularly keen to more fully explore the attitudes of the American public about the situation in Darfur and what steps it felt were warranted in response. Crisis Group commissioned the respected Zogby International polling firm to conduct a public opinion survey in the United States during May 2005. This briefing is the result of that joint effort. From 9-16 May 2005, 1,000 representative Americans were surveyed on the Darfur questions included in this briefing, as part of a larger 35- question Zogby International Survey.

While the results of the poll are detailed below, several aspects of the findings are most striking. Above all, the breadth of American support -- across party and religious lines -- for a much tougher response to the current situation is striking. Some 84% of respondents said the U.S. should not tolerate an extremist government committing such attacks, and should use its military assets, short of inserting U.S. combat troops on the ground to protect civilians, to help bring them to a halt. There would appear to be much greater public backing for America to play a leadership role in stemming this catastrophe than has been the conventional wisdom in Washington. This includes 81% who supported tough sanctions on Sudanese leaders who control the militias, 80% who backed establishing a no-fly zone over Darfur, and 91% who said the U.S. should cooperate with the International Criminal Court to help bring to justice those accused of crimes against humanity.

Understandably, there was decidedly less support for putting U.S. combat troops on the ground, but the fact that almost 40 percent of respondents favoured this option at a time when the war in Iraq continues to rage and when no U.S. officials have advocated such an option, suggests a widespread belief among the American public that the United States has a fundamental responsibility to directly help protect civilian populations. Given such findings, it is hoped that the United States government will begin to embrace more concerted and direct efforts to end the tragedy in Darfur. Crisis Group will continue to publish frequent analyses of the situation on the ground and policy options.1

II. ZOGBY SURVEY SUMMARY

To survey Americans on the situation in western Sudan is to confirm two basic realities: little concrete information on Africa reaches these shores, yet Americans are ever inclined, at least in principle, to reach out to those in urgent need of assistance. Many Americans have only a loose grasp on the details of the Janjaweed massacres of Sudanese civilians, but a large majority think the U.S. should contribute to international efforts to stop them.

Almost two-thirds of likely voters (64%) say they are aware of the situation in Darfur, but almost half say they are only slightly aware (46%), leaving just 18% to say they are very aware. More than one-third (36%) are not aware of the situation in Darfur, including one in seven (14%) who admit they are not at all aware. These numbers are important in considering respondents' views on U.S. involvement.

When presented with a summary of the problem, respondents say -- by an enormous margin of more than four to one -- that the international community should respond to the Sudanese crisis (70%). This support cuts across party lines and religious denominations. One in six (17%) feel the matter is an internal Sudanese affair, and 13% are not sure. In a subsequent question on international intervention (rather than mere response), an even larger majority (79%) say the international community has a responsibility to take action to stop the Janjaweed attacks, while just 15% disagree. The slight discrepancy in these numbers, with more respondents supporting outright intervention in the latter question, suggests that Americans begin to feel more strongly about action in Darfur as they warm to the subject.

Even more respondents (80%) agree that the Janjaweed attacks on civilian populations in Darfur, supported by the Sudanese government, can accurately be called "genocide" or "crimes against humanity." One in ten disagree, and one in ten are not sure. When asked about appropriate responses, 84% say the U.S. should not tolerate an extremist government committing genocide or crimes against humanity and should use its military assets, short of putting U.S. troops on the ground, to help stop the tragedy in Darfur. Just 8% disagree, saying the U.S. should not worry about genocide or crimes against humanity in places like Africa. Correspondingly, more than 80% of respondents agree that it is unacceptable for any government to engage in wholesale attacks on its own civilians, while a notable 10% disagree.

When asked about specific measures the U.S. might take, an overwhelming 91% of respondents say the U.S. should cooperate with the International Criminal Court -- to which, of course, the U.S. does not belong -- to help bring to justice those accused of crimes against humanity. Strong majorities also support tough sanctions on Sudanese leaders who control the militias (81%), a no-fly zone over Darfur (80%), and NATO logistical and troop support for an expanded African peacekeeping force (76%). Support falls quickly away at the prospect of U.S. military action; just 38% of likely voters think the U.S. should send troops under its own flag.

A plurality of respondents (45%) think U.S. universities and pension funds should divest their holdings in the Chinese state oil company operating in Sudan, to condemn its indirect contribution to arming the militias. Nearly as many respondents disagree, however (39%), perhaps put off by the prospect of a complicated international situation like that of South Africa in the 1980s.

It is worth noting that African-Americans are among the U.S. sub-groups least aware of the situation in Darfur, and least likely to feel that the international community has a responsibility to intervene. One out of five African-Americans (20%) say they are not at all aware of what is happening in Darfur, compared to just 14% of all likely voters. While large majorities in most sub-groups agree that the international community has a responsibility to take action in the conflict, short of sending U.S. troops (83% of college graduates, 80% of all whites), the number dips to 72% among African-Americans and Hispanics. The percentage of African-Americans who agree that the attacks in Darfur can be called "genocide" or "crimes against humanity" is 68%, whereas 80% of all respondents are comfortable with these terms. On the other hand, African-Americans are more likely to support the deployment of U.S. troops in Darfur (50%) than are whites (37%) or Hispanics (36%); and a sizable two-thirds (67%) of African-Americans think the U.S. pays too little attention to Africa, compared to 53% of all likely voters.

Note:

1 For Crisis Group's most recent policy briefing see Crisis Group Africa Briefing N=B024, A New Sudan Action Plan, 26 April 2005. This and other reports on Darfur and Sudan as a whole, together with much other material, may be found at www.crisisgroup.org.

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