Mission Highlights
- For a second consecutive year the combined impact of adverse weather, lack of timely availability of inputs and severe economic constraints in Zimbabwe have induced hardship and food insecurity among both rural and urban populations.
- National production of main season maize in 2008 is estimated at 575 000 tonnes, some 28 percent lower than the production in 2007 (using the CFSAM estimate of 800 000 tonnes) which in itself was some 44 percent below 2006 government estimate. The Mission estimates the total domestic cereal availability for 2008/09 marketing year at 848 000 tonnes, about 40 percent below last year's domestic supply. This includes a forecast production of winter wheat and additional production of maize from winter/early, peri-urban/urban and seed crops.
- Primary factors responsible for this year's decline, in addition to adverse weather, were untimely delivery of seeds and shortages of fertilizer, deteriorating infrastructure, and most importantly unprofitable prices for most of the GMB controlled crops. A decline in national agricultural production over the last 7-8 years is also due to the structural change. The newly settled farmers cultivate only about half of the prime land allocated to them owing to shortages of tractor/draught power, fuel, and investment in infrastructure/improvements, and absenteeism on the part of some new settler beneficiaries. The large-scale commercial sector now produces less than one-tenth of the maize that it produced in the 1990s.
- The maize yields of the communal farmers who used to produce the bulk of the crop in the country have also reduced to one-fourth in about 10 years due to the loss of their symbiotic relationship with former large scale commercial agricultural sector and a demise of healthy agro-input industries. - With the total utilization of cereals at about 2.080 million tonnes including 1.875 million tonnes for direct human consumption for the projected population of 11.865 million, the resulting cereal import requirement is estimated at 1.232 million tonnes, of which the maize deficit accounts for about one million tonnes.
- The annual inflation estimated at 355 000 percent for March 2008, the world's highest level, erodes the purchasing power of households dramatically on a daily basis and greatly limits their access to the meagre supplies available.
- Given the acute shortage of foreign currency, the dwindling export base, and high prices of maize in the region and internationally, the Mission estimates that total commercial cereal imports could be about 850 000 tonnes, leaving an uncovered deficit of about 380 000 tonnes of maize.
- The Mission estimates that 2.04 million people in rural and urban areas will be food insecure between July and September 2008, rising to 3.8 million people between October and peaking to about 5.1 million at the height of the hungry season between January and March 2009. The food insecure population will require food assistance amounting to some 395 000 tonnes of cereals in 2008/09. Additional foods such as oil and legumes, as well as supplementary foods will also be required to augment the higher needs of most vulnerable groups.
- The market availability of cereals for households that have purchasing power will be crucial to avoid more people becoming food insecure due to scarcity and higher food prices that could result from such scarcity. In view of the GMB's limited capacity, the Mission further recommends that trading in cereals should be opened up to private traders to ensure that cereals can be imported and moved quickly to areas of need.
- The Mission also recommends emergency assistance by the Government and the international community to supply timely and quality seed and fertilizer, and dipping chemicals for the control of tick-borne livestock diseases. Appropriate varieties of maize and small-grain seed also need to be sourced urgently for delivery in September 2009. Promotion of locally grown open pollinated variety seed and use of manure instead of imported chemical fertilizers needs to be considered.
- To deal with the structural food deficit and chronic shortage, it is recommended that the international community and the Government enter into a policy dialogue to mobilize the economic and other assistance needed to promote sustainable food production and overall food security by way of development assistance for investment in farm mechanization and infrastructure (tractor availability, rehabilitation of irrigation facilities, etc.) to enhance productivity and allow fuller capacity utilization by the newly settled farmers. The Mission also supports reforms of the grain marketing system in line with the economic liberalization policy goal announced by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in April 2007, in order to protect farmers with minimum support prices and to allow private sector participation in the grain marketing system.
1. OVERVIEW
Zimbabwe experienced incessant rains in the first half of the 2007/08 cropping season during December-January causing severe water logging followed by prolonged dry spells, through much of the country compounding the devastating effects of a decade-long economic decline. Against this backdrop an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) was invited by the Government. The Mission visited the country from 29 April to 23 May 2008 to carry out an independent assessment of the 2008 production of the main cereals, assess the overall food security situation and determine the food import requirement, including food assistance needs, for the current marketing year 2008/09 (April/March). The primary purpose of a CFSAM is to provide an accurate picture of the extent and severity of crisis-induced food insecurity, existing or expected, in the country (or in specific areas) so that timely and appropriate actions can be taken by the government and the international community to minimize the impact of the crisis on affected populations.
In Harare, the Mission held meetings with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoA), UNDP Resident Coordinator, FAO Representative and FAO technical staff, WFP's Acting Country Director and other staff, World Bank, UNICEF, UNAIDS, UNFPA, IOM, Department of Social Welfare (Ministry of Planning and Social Welfare), Grain Marketing Board (GMB), Zimbabwe Meteorological Department, Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Health, Zimbabwe Food and Nutrition Council (ZFNC), Commercial Farmers Union (CFU), Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU), and some of the international and national NGOs. The Mission benefited from valuable inputs from these meetings.
In the field, the Mission was assisted and guided by senior specialists from the Department of Agricultural Research and Extension (Agritex) and other staff of MoA, the GMB, Department of Meteorology and Ministry of Planning and Social Welfare, along with four FAO and two WFP staff members from the country offices. An observer from FEWSNet also participated in the Mission. The Mission, divided itself into four teams, travelled to all eight rural provinces covering a total of 28 out of the country's 58 rural districts over 8-9 day period. The districts to be visited were carefully selected using a range of criteria including the overall productivity, agro-ecological zones, and livelihood/vulnerability considerations. In each province and district, the teams met with administrative authorities including the Governor of the Province and Agritex officials. After these meetings, the teams travelled to different parts (wards) of the selected district covering different farming sectors (communal, A1, A2, Old Resettlement, Small Scale and Large Scale). Brief observations on urban and peri-urban plots of crops were made in Harare and Bulawayo. The Mission also visited markets and interviewed some petty traders. The Mission also relied heavily on the remote sensing analysis and data on rainfall (in particular the satellite-based dekadal estimated rainfall for the current season, the last season and the long term average for each district), vegetation indices (NDVIs) and various interim assessment reports.
The Mission had access to the Agritex's own post-planting area assessment carried out in the first week of February and the pre-harvest crop assessment carried out during the second week of April. This information was used as the basis for verification. Livestock conditions were observed and investigated en route and in the districts visited. Field assessments were made regarding household's food production, food security, vulnerability, coping mechanisms and social welfare programmes following the 'triangulation' methodology described in the revised CFSAM Guidelines (1). The crop production and vulnerability situations this year were compared with previous years to get a relative historical perspective. Data and information received from secondary sources were reviewed against data, information and insights obtained during field visits in arriving at the estimates made by the Mission.
The Mission used national, provincial and district production data and combined this with information obtained from household and focus-group discussions. Potential income from cash crop and livestock production/sales was used to draw conclusions about the status of food security and the corresponding impacts of the production failure.
The results of this Mission are described in the following sections and are summarised in the Highlights above.
Note:
(1) FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission Guidelines (revised recently and to be published on the FAO/GIEWS and WFP Web sites).