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World

An investment in our collective future

by Jan Egeland

OVER THE last 30 years, natural disasters have affected five times more people than they did only a generation ago. The bad news is, things are getting worse as our climate changes, threatening more extreme weather and a potential explosion in human misery. This year alone, 117 million people have suffered from some 300 natural disasters, including devastating droughts in China and Africa and massive flooding throughout Asia and Africa, costing nearly $15 billion in damages. The good news is, we are far from powerless to reduce risks and protect ourselves from nature's wrath. But we must act today if we are to prevent calamity tomorrow.

Indeed, we have no time to lose.

Global warming could change the face of our planet within the lifetimes of our children or grandchildren. Scientists warn that sea levels are steadily rising as glaciers and the polar ice caps melt, spelling potential catastrophe for hundreds of millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas from Bangladesh to New York, China to the Netherlands.

Those countries least responsible for causing global warming - developing nations - will be the ones most affected by its consequences. Massive flooding, droughts, storms, infectious disease spread, disruption of crop cycles, and competition for natural resources could threaten the lives of countless millions. And as always in the cruel calculus of disasters, the poorer a community the greater its vulnerability to nature's hazards and the more difficult its recovery.

Of course, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis have long posed deadly threats. But today the risk of mass fatalities is greater given modern land use policies, rapid urbanisation, and population growth. Today, tens of millions of people in mega-cities such as Mumbai, Mexico City, Lagos, and Sao Paulo live in potential death traps: huge, densely populated slums with little basic infrastructure or sanitation that are located on fault lines or in flood-prone areas. The result is a human house of cards with potentially catastrophic consequences, especially for the poorest among us. To ignore these risks is to play poker with our future.

The dangers are real. But so, too, are the opportunities we must seize - today, without delay - to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Three principles should guide us. First, be aware - and prepare. As 2005 showed us, no country is immune from the effects of extreme weather and disasters. And no country can afford to be complacent in preparing for them. The old maxim is correct: an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. One dollar invested in disaster reduction today can save up to seven dollars tomorrow in relief and rehabilitation costs.

Disaster risk reduction is not a luxury. It's an essential insurance policy for a more disaster-prone world, and one of the smartest, most cost effective investments we can make in our common future. The benefits of this investment will be calculated not only in dollars saved, but most importantly, in saved lives.

Secondly, we need to strengthen our resilience to disasters, and build "smarter and safer" especially in high-risk regions. A year ago, some 17,000 children died when schools and other buildings collapsed from the earthquake that struck Pakistan and India. Many of these children might still be alive today had the schools used quake resistant construction.

Disasters can also erase decades of development gains overnight. In Pakistan, for example, last year's quake cost the country $5 billion in damages - approximately the same amount the World Bank lent the country over the last decade. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch caused losses equal to 41 per cent of Honduras' GDP. In the Maldives, 66 per cent of its GDP was wiped out by the 2004 tsunami.

Risk reduction must be woven into the fabric of international development and lending policies to prevent these huge losses. To this end, the U.N. has formed a new global partnership for risk reduction that harnesses support from governments, the World Bank, non-governmental organisations, and civic groups. Significant resources back the effort, including the World Bank's new "Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery," which will channel funds to support the use of disaster-resilient technology, design and construction in 86 disaster-prone countries.

Thirdly, we need to get back to basics, and get out the word. Disaster risk reduction is fundamentally a matter of communication and education. People, not hardware, must be at the centre of any successful disaster warning and preparedness measures. Everyone - from the head of state to local building contractors, radio announcers, and local schoolteachers - has a role to play in making communities more resilient to nature's hazards. Well-prepared evacuation plans, better land usage and environmental policies, public awareness campaigns, emergency broadcasting systems - these steps and more can be taken today to help mitigate tomorrow's threats.

I am convinced that if we actively employ risk reduction measures, deaths from natural disasters can be cut dramatically in the coming decades. Global warming underscores the urgency - and the moral imperative - for action. Let's seize this opportunity. Lives depend on it.

The writer is the United Nations Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. He also serves as Chair of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.

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