What are Israel's plans for withdrawing
from the Gaza Strip?
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his
Likud Party-led government are proceeding with plans to unilaterally withdraw
all troops and Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West
Bank. The process of removing settlers is scheduled to begin in mid-August
and will take up to a month, experts say. Israel has controlled the Gaza
Strip and the West Bank since it won the territory during the 1967 Arab-Israeli
War, also known as the Six-Day War. However, sections of Gaza and the West
Bank are now under Palestinian control.
Which settlements will be evacuated?
All of the 21 Israeli settlements in Gaza, and four-Ganim, Kadim, Homesh, and Sanur-of some 125 settlements in the West Bank. In all, about 7,000 to 9,000 settlers will be moved, says Geoffrey Aronson, director of research and publications and an expert on Israeli settlements at the Foundation for Middle East Peace in Washington.
What kind of security will be needed?
About 40,000 soldiers from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will enforce the withdrawal, says Michael Herzog, currently a brigadier general in the Israeli army and a visiting military fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. So many soldiers are needed, he says, because many settlers are expected to use passive resistance against the withdrawal. "Quite a few of the settlers will need to be physically removed," Herzog says. The IDF is allotting four soldiers to carry each person and 17 soldiers to clear each house. On May 23, Moshe Karadi, Israeli chief of police, told the Israeli Council of Peace and Security-a nongovernmental body made up of current and former security chiefs-that some 7,000 policemen will help manage the withdrawal and the accompanying protests. Another 5,000 will be sent to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, whose Islamic holy sites Jewish extremists have threatened to attack in order to disrupt the disengagement process. The Israeli police force has a total of some 20,000 police officers. In all, "a huge percentage of IDF and police manpower will be deployed to this mission," Herzog says.
How much will the withdrawal cost?
An estimated $2 billion. Each of the families being moved from Gaza will receive average compensation of between $200,000 to $300,000, Herzog says. In addition, the IDF will remove military bases and equipment from Gaza that were used to protect settlers there over the last several decades. However, "the cost [of withdrawal] has to be weighed against the cost of staying there," says Martin Indyk, director of the Saban Center for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. Israel has maintained a full division of soldiers in Gaza to protect the settlers there, who are under near-constant attack.
Who will pay for it?
Israel, with U.S. assistance. Israel recently asked the United States for $2 billion to help cover the cost of new developments for settlers and others in the northern region of Galilee and the Negev, in the south. Some experts say helping to fund these developments, which are not on disputed territory, is in the U.S. interest because it will further peace in the Middle East. Others say the request, which would be in addition to the $3 billion in foreign aid per year Israel already receives from the United States, is inappropriately large. Washington sent some $250 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority last year, and has pledged $350 million for next year.
Have there been protests against the withdrawal?
Yes. Tens of thousands of protesters have been massing near the southern Israeli town of Netivot, about six miles from the Gaza settlements, to show solidarity with the settlers about to be removed. Many of them have been urged by settler rabbis to move into Gaza to complicate the withdrawal. Demonstrators, some wearing orange-the color adopted to signal their opposition to the withdrawal-are being held back by police and soldiers from crossing into Gaza. "The entire Gaza area is now a closed military zone," Indyk says-only residents and the armed forces can enter.
Does the Israeli public support the demonstrators or the government?
Sixty-five percent to 70 percent of the Israeli public has consistently supported the disengagement policy in polls, Herzog says. Lately, that figure has dropped to around 50 percent, he says. Experts say many Israelis, while sympathetic to settlers forced from their homes, are losing patience with the more extreme methods some of the settlers and their supporters are using, including blocking roads, disrupting traffic, threatening to assassinate politicians, and attacking soldiers. "The tactics they've chosen are polarizing," Aronson says. But Herzog says, for the settlers, this is a life-or-death fight. "They are trying to prevent [Gaza disengagement], but if they fail, they want to make it so traumatic that any future government will think twice about removing more settlements," Herzog says. "They're fighting the next war."
Will the protests lead to violence?
It's possible, experts say. "There are always the one or two lunatics who may try to use firepower," Herzog says. IDF forces will be unarmed as they approach settlers' houses and will make all efforts not to use violence in removing people, experts say. But there will be ranks of armed soldiers behind them in case they are needed. Many experts expect some clashes between settlers and the soldiers. "I believe there will be civil strife, but not civil war," Indyk says.
Is there a risk of violence from Palestinian militants?
Yes, experts say. Herzog says the IDF is preparing for potential terror attacks on the masses of settlers, soldiers, and protestors gathered in southern Israel for the withdrawal. "People think, if they're firing Qassams [a rocket used by the militant group Hamas] at us now, what will they do when there's a bigger target?" he says. Israeli officers are pushing their Palestinian counterparts to prevent terror attacks during the withdrawal; they say the IDF will retaliate with force if its soldiers or the settlers are attacked by Palestinian militants.
Who's involved in managing the process?
The pullout was originally meant to be unilateral, but after Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas was elected in January, replacing the late Yasir Arafat, Israel began consulting with the Palestinians on its plan. Leaders from both sides, including Palestinian Interior Minister Nasser Yusuf and Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, have met since June to coordinate the withdrawal, focusing particularly on security arrangements. The two sides also have strong support from international observers. James Wolfensohn, the former World Bank president, is serving as the "disengagement envoy" for the Quartet, a group-Russia, the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States-backing the road map plan for Middle East peace.
What will happen to the physical infrastructure built by Israelis after they leave?
The fate of the houses, factories, and greenhouses in Gaza built by and for the settlers is still unclear. Some officials have said the Israelis will demolish the houses, both so settlers cannot return and so Palestinians cannot use them. Palestinians prefer different housing anyway, Herzog says, not the villas favored by Israelis, but high-rises with room for their large, extended families. One proposal put forward by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was that Israel would demolish the structures and then pay Palestinian contractors to cart away the rubble. But no final decisions have been made, experts say. "We won't know what they're going to do until it's over," Aronson says. "I'm sure nobody knows."
What economic challenges will the Palestinians face in Gaza after the withdrawal?
The Palestinian economy is in bad shape, wracked by corruption, violence, and security restrictions. Per capita income in the West Bank and Gaza Strip was $1,800 annually in 2000; it has since fallen to $1,000, wrote Dennis Ross, Middle East envoy under presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, in a Washington Post op-ed May 25. Wolfensohn is working with the Palestinians to develop a new social safety-net program, job-creation initiatives, and a three-year plan to improve the Palestinian economy. In early July, the leaders of the world's richest countries pledged $3 billion for Palestinian development at the Group of Eight summit in Scotland.
What security concerns will there be after the Israelis leave?
Some experts fear the area will be overrun with Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants, who could use it as a base to amass weapons and fighters. Disarming the militants was one of the Palestinians' main obligations under the road map; Abbas has made some progress on this-and is trying to co-opt militants by bringing them into the Palestinian Authority security forces-but Israeli officials say more needs to be done. U.S. Middle East special envoy Lieutenant General William Ward is working with the Palestinians to help reform their security forces and gain control over the militias.
Will the Gaza withdrawal help restart the peace process?
Rice has expressed hope that it will. "We really want the Gaza withdrawal to be a beginning for the process of coming to a final conclusion of the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians," she said in an interview on Jordanian television June 19. If the withdrawal is successful, Rice said, "it does lead one to believe...the road map, which is the most reliable guide to a two-state solution, could be reengaged...with vigor." Sharon's government, however, has downplayed any link between the Gaza withdrawal and the terms of the road map, or withdrawal from any other settlements. "It's too early to tell whether this will be a precursor [to further settlement withdrawal] or the exception that proves the rule that settlements will be abandoned," Aronson says.