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Somalia

UPDF facing mission impossible in Somalia

Last week the Ugandan parliament voted to send troops to lawless, war-torn and violent Somalia. It is not clear when these troops will land in Somalia but UPDF spokesman Captain Paddy Ankunda has hinted that they "will go in as soon as possible," possibly this week.

In the meantime, as Uganda prepares to deploy a 1,500-strong force, as part of an African Union peacekeeping mission, violence is rocking Somalia. In the latest incident, four people were killed when their car exploded in Mogadishu on Sunday. According to a Reuters report, the blast occurred in northern Mogadishu, next to a football stadium, and is one of the many daily attacks that have come to characterise the Somali capital since the interim government, backed by Ethiopian troops, drove out Islamists in December.

At present, only Uganda seems to have troops ready for what many think is "mission impossible." The AU has authorised the deployment of AMISOM to be composed of 8,000 troops. So far no other African country has prepared a force to join the Ugandans. Ghana, as chair of the African Union, is expected to join Nigeria, which has also offered to send troops to AMISOM. It is highly doubtful whether the other countries that have offered troops, such as Burundi and Malawi will meet their pledges.

Although the AMISOM force will have a clear mandate of supporting the Transitional Federal Government of Abdullahi Yusuf to gain control over the country, the force will also have to address myriad other problems, such as arms proliferation. There is currently a booming business in Mogadishu, where the price of an AK-47 has doubled to $400 since the government took control of Mogadishu. The price of a pistol has also gone up from $230 to $400. Reuters has also reported that although AK-47s are the most sought after weapons, there has also been increasing demand for mortars and rocket-propelled grenades that are being fired at Ethiopian and government troops almost daily.

It is the high risk posed by prevalence of such instruments of violence that is causing Ugandans jitters and making many wonder why their troops should be subjected to attacks similar to those experienced by the Ethiopians since their takeover of the country in December last year. However, President Museveni has issued a stern warning to the Islamists not to "bring that Middle Eastern nonsense (of Jihad)" to Africa. He has promised to face them with "Black Jihad" if they bring Jihad to Africa.

The NRM deputy spokesman, Ofwono-Opondo, who is very confident that UPDF will be able to withstand and ward off attacks, has expressed similar sentiments. He has also argued that Somalia being a source of arms is a strong enough incentive for Uganda's forces to be deployed there to curb the proliferation of these weapons to their country, where they fall into the hands of bandits and terrorists.

Uganda is calling the Somali deployment a pursuit of "a pre-emptive defence doctrine," which essentially similar to the US doctrine of fighting its enemies outside its borders. It is this doctrine that Uganda has applied to deploy its troops to the DRC and Sudan to contain the ADF and LRA respectively. But critics have challenged the Uganda government to explain why it is sending troops to restore law and order in another land when they have failed to defeat the LRA and restore peace to Northern Uganda for the past 21 years.

Another question yet to be answered is who will bear the cost of the deployment. It is expected that the US will offer to airlift Ugandan troops and gear to Somalia. The Uganda taxpayer also will be expected to come up with at least $1.3 million every month. So far, the mission is estimated to cost $35 mn per month but pledges so far, even if met, would provide sufficient funding for only two months at most. It is very risky to deploy a force without a guarantee of funds and supplies. Unless the Ugandan government has secured funds from sources that it is keeping confidential, it is difficult to figure out how it will deploy this week, as promised. Indeed, this could well turn out to be "mission impossible".

Wafula Okumu, Head, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)