Forecasts for the 2006-2007 season are predicting normal to above-normal rainfall for the Sahel and most parts of West Africa with the exception of southwestern Nigeria, southern Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast and southeastern Liberia
Summary
The growing season in the Sahel is about to get underway as the first rains of the season begin to fall in southern Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad and localized areas of southern Niger. Forecasts for the 2006-2007 season by the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) are predicting normal to above-normal rainfall totals for most areas with the exception of southwestern Nigeria, southern Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast and southeastern Liberia.
However, there is some uncertainty over global ocean behavior in the South Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea. Thus, it is especially important to monitor the pattern of anomalies in sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Guinea over the next few months. This pattern of behavior will have a crucial effect on rainfall conditions for the July through September 2006 season in the eastern and central Sahel and Gulf of Guinea states, as well as in Sudan, the Central African Republic and eastern Chad.
The current overall food security situation around the region is still good. Conditions on grain markets are stable, with regular supplies and prices holding steady at levels well below figures for the same time last year.
Conditions in livestock markets are equally encouraging, with an improvement in the forage availability at the beginning of this year’s lean period over last year. Animals are in better shape and livestock prices are more advantageous from the pastoralists’ standpoint. The juxtaposition of these favorable circumstances and near-average grain prices is creating rather advantageous terms of trade for livestock/grain as far as pastoralists are concerned, improving their grain access just as they are about to head north with their herds.
However, the steady depreciation of the naira in Nigeria, which is the main market for livestock and animal products from the Sahel, could threaten these good conditions. In fact, the depreciation of the Nigerian currency has pushed the exchange rate up from 260 to 272 nairas per 1000 CFA francs over the last twelve months, which could slow the livestock trade directed at consumer markets in Nigeria as profit margins for traders/exporters narrow with the failure of retail prices to automatically adjust to the depreciation of the naira. Moreover, the countless tensions and growing violence faced by livestock traders constrain trade. Thus, trade should be facilitated by reducing formal barriers to trade such as high duties and levies, and assuring the safety of traders along corresponding trade routes to prevent a breakdown in this trade, which would be detrimental to the food security of Sahelian pastoralists and consumers in southern Nigeria (already threatened by the current bird flu outbreak or bring back non-African meat on markets in major coastal cities). Thus, for the next few months, it is vital to closely monitor:
- trends in the naira/CFA franc exchange rate;
- the regularity and volume of trade in grain and livestock; and
- the progress of the 2006/07 growing season around the region.
A generally promising seasonal outlook for the Sahel and West Africa
The growing season in the Sahel is about to get underway as the first rains of the season begin to fall in southern Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad and localized areas of southern Niger. Seasonal forecasts by ACMAD for the 2006-2007 season are predicting normal to above-normal rainfall totals for most areas with the exception of southwestern Nigeria, southern Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast and southeastern Liberia (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Rainfall outlook for the July through September 2006 season
Source: ACMAD and AGRHYMET
The forecast area was divided into the following five zones for a more in-depth look at rainfall conditions:
ZONE 1: Southern Senegal, Guinea Bissau and western Guinea. Slightly above-normal rainfall is forecast for this zone.
ZONE 2: Northern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger and northwestern Nigeria; and
ZONE 3: Eastern Niger, northeastern Nigeria, northern Cameroon and central Chad. Normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for these two zones.
ZONE 4: Eastern Guinea, Sierra Leone, northwestern Liberia, northern Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, central and eastern Nigeria, central Niger, Cameroon and southern Chad. Normal rainfall conditions are forecast for this zone.
ZONE 5: Southwestern Nigeria, southern Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast and southeastern Liberia. Dry conditions are forecast for this zone.
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