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Somalia

Somalia: Food Security and Nutrition Monthly Brief 19 Dec 2005

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Highlights
Rapidly Deteriorating Food Security Situation in Southern Somalia

Failed Deyr rains, the second consecutive season of below normal rains, are leading to a rapid and alarming deterioration in food security throughout southern Somalia. Pastoralists in Gedo and the northern parts of Juba already face a critical food security situation and are at high risk of Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis. For populations already classified in a chronic state of Humanitarian Emergency in Gedo and Juba, the effect of a deteriorating food security is already evident in increasing levels of malnutrition - in populations where malnutrition rates are already significantly above acceptable international levels (see page 2). Other regions in the south face the same problems of poor pasture, limited water and poor crop harvests due to two seasons of below normal rainfall and their food security situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months with the onset of the long Jilaal season (Jan.-March).

Total annual cereal production is expected to be the lowest in a decade, leading to an overall shortfall in annual cereal supply (see FSAU Monthly Report November 2005). Access to food will be considerably worse given that cereal prices are expected to increase, while income opportunities will be limited and terms of trade will deteriorate over the next four months.

In a worst case scenario, poor crop production and rangeland conditions, combined with the potential for increased civil insecurity would lead to a significant part of Southern Somalia rapidly deteriorating into a major Humanitarian Emergency. Even without increased civil insecurity, the food security of a large proportion of the population will continue to decline over the coming long Jilaal season (Jan.-March), with limited potential for improvement until the next Gu rains (April/May 2006).

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