Justification
1. More than one million people have died and more than two million have been displaced as a result of the conflict in Rwanda. The human suffering is of an incomprehensible scale. The recent escalation of the conflict and violence has received wide international concern and attention. The international community has provided substantial assistance to alleviate the human suffering and has contributed to efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.
2. Natural and man-made catastrophes claim an increasing share of the stagnating international aid. Total emergency assistance will in 1994 exceed US$5 billion or about 10% of ODA. Donor assistance to the Rwanda emergency alone amounts to more than US$840 million during the first nine months of 19948. Total needs for 1994 are well beyond US$1 billion, corresponding to about 2% of ODA.
3. In recent years an increasing number of countries have experienced emergencies caused by a combination of natural and man-made disasters or by conflict. These emergencies are inherently complex, of prolonged duration and cause large-scale human suffering and economic losses. Although some evaluations of emergency assistance have been carried out, experience from planning and execution of large-scale relief activities and their effects is not, as yet, extensively documented.
4. There are two obvious reasons for evaluating the emergency assistance to Rwanda:
i) The donor community needs to account for the relevance, effectiveness and impact of the substantial share of overall aid.
ii) Despite the uniqueness of each emergency, valuable lessons for planning and execution of future relief operations can, and should, be derived.
Objectives
5. The main objective of the evaluation is to draw lessons from the experience in Rwanda that will be relevant for future complex emergencies as well as for the operations in Rwanda and the region, including their prevention, the preparation for and provision of emergency assistance, and the transition from relief to development. As of October 1994. The amount does not include substantial in-kind contributions. DHA Rwanda Financial Update No. 3
Context
6. The emergency relief activities covered by the evaluation were and are carried out in the context of three fairly distinct scenarios, each with its clear implications. In each scenario the nature of events and political context changed, new groups of the population required assistance, geographical focus shifted quickly, access to areas and people was opened up or closed, and operational challenges shifted. A key concept which justifies framing the evaluation according to the three scenarios is the humanitarian space. The humanitarian space sets the framework for humanitarian assistance in complex emergencies and influences parameters for setting priorities, access to target groups, security and need for protection and a range of possible activities within the continuum emergency prevention - emergency relief - reconstruction - rehabilitation - development. The three scenarios can be categorized by the following events and contexts:
7. Mass killings, mass movements and social collapse. The major focus was on mass displacement within Rwanda, access to affected people in Rwanda and containment of the killings, and on refugee flow into Tanzania. Stabilization of refugee/displaced situation, authority vacuum, military offensive and new mass movements. The major focus was on stabilization of emergency assistance to refugee camps inside Rwanda (Sector 4) and in Tanzania, new refugee flow into Zaire due to major military offensive, establishment of security zones and access to affected people in all areas of Rwanda. Consolidation and attempts at reÐestablishment of authority. The major focus was and is on supporting basic political and social functions, repatriation, rehabilitation and reconstruction.
8. New developments may quickly bring about yet another scenario that will influence future emergency relief activities. As will be seen in the following sections, both the second study on prevention efforts, and the third study on actual provision of emergency assistance, are relevant to each of these scenarios.
Scope
9. The emergency relief activities covered by the evaluation comprise the continuum: emergency prevention; emergency preparedness and delivery; repatriation, rehabilitation and reconstruction; and the relationship between emergencies, emergency aid and long-term development. The continuum will be covered through a multidimensional approach with four component studies, each of which represents a dimension of a very complex emergency in Rwanda seen in a regional context. Focus will be on the linkages among political, military and humanitarian assistance by the international community.
10. The first study, the historic background, will outline the roots and course of events of the conflict within Rwanda society and seek to identify possibilities of reconciliation, the ultimate conflict/emergency-resolution in the country.
9 The term scenario (sequence of events) is used as an analytical tool to portray main components of a complex situation.
10 The term humanitarian space refers to the degree of access and acceptable conditions for humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian space is limited by e.g. actions of war, unsafe environment, physical destruction and political constraints. Humanitarian space may be created and widened through negotiations of mercy corridors, zones of tranquillity, safe havens and other mutually agreed arrangements; through involvement of sanctions and military force to varying degrees; or through crossÐborder operations from neighbouring countries.
11. The second study will focus on the relevance and effectiveness of emergency-prevention efforts, including mechanisms for monitoring and responding to approaching emergencies (early warning system) and conflict management. It will aim at assessing the need and mechanisms for early action and systematic containment efforts in situations of approaching emergencies, not only for Rwanda but other countries as well.
12. The third study will assess mechanisms for and effectiveness of preparation and coordination of emergency assistance programming, the impact of emergency assistance. It will, with due consideration of the complexity and dynamics of the emergency, concentrate on the effectiveness of coordinated action as well as timely and appropriate assistance through numerous channels to people in dire need. It will further assess contingency plans for possible new emergency scenarios.
13. The fourth study will assess the planning and preparation for repatriation and rehabilitation to recreate and consolidate the capacities of emergency victims, reconstruct their communities and launch sustainable development programmes in their societies in order to ensure a level of living which is more secure than the pre-disaster situation.
14. Certain specific issues, in particular human rights as well as gender issues in humanitarian assistance, special needs of unaccompanied children and the role of the military in providing logistical support for humanitarian assistance, are cross-cutting and will be given special attention in the four studies.
15. The results of the four studies will be synthesized in a final report that will present the findings and lessons learnt for each element of the continuum taking into consideration the complexity of the various scenarios. Within this perspective, the lessons learnt from the evaluation will be useful in dealing with future disasters, including Rwanda, to the benefit of everybody concerned; victims, affected societies, aid organizations and donor countries.
Approach
16. Given the present complex political context of the evaluation, the evaluation will be carried out in an objective, sensitive and perceptive manner with varied and balanced consideration of both positive and negative aspects. The evaluation will be oriented towards lessons learnt from the Rwanda emergency assistance experience that could be applicable to programme-adjustment and policy-formulation affecting responses to present and future complex emergencies, rather than a report oriented to assigning accountability for past actions or lack of action.
17. The evaluation will be based on documentation, including results of recent and ongoing reviews and evaluations, from involved national, bilateral and multilateral agencies and NGOs at headquarters and field level, interviews with these agencies' representatives, Rwandan officials and experts, and with field workers and recipients, and on other fact-finding as necessary and appropriate. Fieldwork will be limited and will be planned and organized in close collaboration with the agencies concerned so as not to interfere with emergency relief activities and not duplicate existing or ongoing surveys and studies. Alternative sources of information will be explored, including lessons from other emergencies.
18. In view of the diversity of the issues to be evaluated, the separate studies, each with separate terms of reference and reports, will be contracted to independent institutions or individuals with requisite qualifications in the fields of i) emergency assistance management, planning, and implementation, ii) repatriation and rehabilitation of refugees, iii) regional and specifically Rwanda's history and situation, iv) institution and capacity building, v) conflict and emergency analysis, vi) socio-cultural and gender aspects.
Management of the evaluation
19. The overall management of the evaluation will be entrusted to a Steering Committee comprising the interested members of the international aid community. The Steering Committee will, based on the objectives and scope as defined here, design and manage the evaluation, and present the final report to all donors and to the agencies involved as subjects of the evaluation. The Steering Committee will be responsible for raising funds. The Evaluation Unit of Danida will be the lead agency and overall coordinator.
20. The Steering Committee will meet at least four times to:
a) finalize the TOR and approve short list of qualified evaluators (institutions/individuals) and approve budget and funding (mid-December 1994);
b) discuss and provide feedback on study reports and approve outline of synthesis report (midJuly 1995),
c) discuss and provide feedback on draft synthesis report (end November 1995);
d) present the final report to the international community (end December 1995).
21. Each study will be managed by a lead agency: Study I: Sweden; Study II: Norway; Study III: United Kingdom; Study IV: United States of America. The four lead agencies with Denmark in the Chair will constitute a management group and will contract, assign and supervise the work of consultants/institutions within these terms of reference and the resources available. Each lead agency will seek close cooperation and coordination with relevant UN and other international and national agencies.
22. The costs of the evaluation will be met by voluntary contributions from interested parties. For purposes of budget administration the procedures and practices current in the lead agencies will be adopted. Danida will make arrangements for administration of contributions within the established budget.
Duration
23. The evaluation will commence in January 1995 and last until December 1995. Interim study reports will be ready for discussion in the Steering Committee, and with the concerned parties, at the end of June 1995. The final evaluation reports: a synthesis report and the various study reports, will be available at the end of December 1995.